Related papers: Ancestral process for infectious disease outbreaks…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
We propose a framework for Bayesian non-parametric estimation of the rate at which new infections occur assuming that the epidemic is partially observed. The developed methodology relies on modelling the rate at which new infections occur…
One of the cornerstones in combating the HIV pandemic is being able to assess the current state and evolution of local HIV epidemics. This remains a complex problem, as many HIV infected individuals remain unaware of their infection status,…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of the spread of an endemic infection. We calculate an exact expression for the mean number of transmissions for all values of the population and the infectivity. We derive the large-N…
Epidemic spread in single-host systems strongly depends on the population's contact network. However, little is known regarding the spread of epidemics across networks representing populations of multiple hosts. We explored cross-species…
Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place…
A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…
A host-parasite model is considered for a population of cells that can be of two types, A or B, and exhibits unilateral reproduction: while a B-cell always splits into two cells of the same type, the two daughter cells of an A-cell can be…
Recent work has attempted to use whole-genome sequence data from pathogens to reconstruct the transmission trees linking infectors and infectees in outbreaks. However, transmission trees from one outbreak do not generalize to future…
We show that a certain model for the spread of an infection has a phase transition in the recuperation rate. The model is as follows: There are particles or individuals of type A and type B, interpreted as healthy and infected,…
First Few X (FFX) studies collect household-stratified data in the early stages of a pandemic, in order to infer severity and transmissibility of an emerging disease. We present a Bayesian method to approximately infer population-level…
Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…
Between pandemics, the influenza virus exhibits periods of incremental evolution via a process known as antigenic drift. This process gives rise to a sequence of strains of the pathogen that are continuously replaced by newer strains,…
The importation and subsequent establishment of novel pathogenic strains in a population is subject to a large degree of uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of the disease dynamics. Mathematical models need to take this stochasticity…
Prior social contagion models consider the spread of either one contagion at a time on interdependent networks or multiple contagions on single layer networks or under assumptions of competition. We propose a new threshold model for the…
Many pathogens spread primarily via direct contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Thus, the patterns of contacts or contact network of a population fundamentally shapes the course of epidemics. While there is a robust and growing…
Mathematical models of infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two general approaches. The first approach, generally known as compartmental modeling, addresses the time evolution of disease propagation at the…
We introduce a model of epidemics among moving particles on any locally finite graph. At any time, each vertex is empty, occupied by a healthy particle, or occupied by an infected particle. Infected particles recover at rate $1$ and…
The current work deals with an epidemic model on the complete graph K_n on n vertices in a non-homogeneous setting, where the vertices may have distinct types. Different types differ in the probability of getting infected, and/or in the…
Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity…