Related papers: Ancestral process for infectious disease outbreaks…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
An infection spreads in a binary tree of height n as follows: initially, each leaf is either infected by one of k states or it is not infected at all. The infection state of each leaf is independently distributed according to a probability…
Identifying the most influential spreaders is one of outstanding problems in physics of complex systems. So far, many approaches have attempted to rank the influence of nodes but there is still the lack of accuracy to single out influential…
Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…
During an infectious disease outbreak, providing accurate answers to policy questions about transmission requires a detailed model of the natural history of infectiousness. Unfortunately, direct measures of infectiousness are generally…
Reconstructing who infected whom is a central challenge in analysing epidemiological data. Recently, advances in sequencing technology have led to increasing interest in Bayesian approaches to inferring who infected whom using genetic data…
Cure rate models are mostly used to study data arising from cancer clinical trials. Its use in the context of infectious diseases has not been explored well. In 2008, Tournoud and Ecochard first proposed a mechanistic formulation of cure…
Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…
The interaction among spreading processes on a complex network is a nontrivial phenomenon of great importance. It has recently been realized that cooperative effects among infective diseases can give rise to qualitative changes in the…
Two crucial elements facilitate the understanding and control of communicable disease spread within a social setting. These components are, the underlying contact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
We consider the spread of infectious disease through contact networks of Configuration Model type. We assume that the disease spreads through contacts and infected individuals recover into an immune state. We discuss a number of existing…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
A common theme among the proposed models for network epidemics is the assumption that the propagating object, i.e., a virus or a piece of information, is transferred across the nodes without going through any modification or evolution.…
In stochastic modeling of infectious diseases, it has been established that variations in infectivity affect the probability of a major outbreak, but not the shape of the curves during a major outbreak, which is predicted by deterministic…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…
We propose a model of the immunity to a cyclical epidemic disease taking account not only of seasonal boosts during the infectious season, but also of residual immunity remaining from one season to the next. The focus is on the exponential…
Intuitively, sampling is likely to be more efficient for prevalence estimation, if the cases (or positives) have a relatively higher representation in the sample than in the population. In case the virus is transmitted via personal…
Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…
We examine the spread of an infectious disease, such as one that is caused by a respiratory virus, with two distinct modes of transmission. To do this, we consider a susceptible--infected--susceptible (SIS) disease on a hypergraph, which…