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The rapidly shrinking Arctic sea ice is changing weather patterns and disrupting the balance of nature. Dynamics of Arctic weather variability (WV) plays a crucial role in weather forecasting and is closely related to extreme weather…
Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes…
Models of complex dynamical systems like the Earth's climate often involve large numbers of uncertain parameters. Comprehensive exploration of the parameter space is typically prohibitive due to excessive computational costs. Systematic…
The oceans play a fundamental role in Earth's climate system, redistributing heat and influencing global and regional climate variability and predictability across weather and climate timescales. The benefits of ocean-atmosphere coupling…
Observed bimodal tree cover distributions at particular environmental conditions and theoretical models indicate that some areas in the tropics can be in either of the alternative stable vegetation states forest or savanna. However, when…
Human activities accelerate consumption of fossil fuels and produce greenhouse gases, resulting in urgent issues today: global warming and the climate change. These indirectly cause severe natural disasters, plenty of lives suffering and…
The recent addition of orbit-spin coupling torques to atmospheric global circulation models has enabled successful years-in-advance forecasts of global and regional-scale dust storms on Mars. Here we explore the applicability of the…
Sudden and abrupt changes can occur in a nonlinear system within many fields of science when such a system crosses a tipping point and rapid changes of the system occur in response to slow changes in an external forcing. These can occur…
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process is thought to be an appropriate…
Recently, the study of the influence of solar activity on the Earth's climate received strong attention, mainly due to the possibility, proposed by several authors, that global warming is not anthropogenic, but is due to an increase in…
The interaction of aerosol-cloud-precipitation has an important impact on the global climate. The understanding of this issue is related to the uncertainty of climate change prediction. The traditional indirect effect of aerosols suggests…
The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two dominant modes of tropical climate variability, each with profound global weather impacts. While their individual dynamics have been widely studied,…
It is well-established that human activity is driving extreme weather patterns, and that these extreme events influence human behaviour. However, few models allow for human behaviours and the climate to dynamically interact. The models…
Earth's modern climate is characterized by wet, rainy deep tropics, however paleoclimate and planetary science have revealed a wide range of hydrological cycle regimes connected to different external parameters. Here we investigate how…
Advances in deep learning methods for weather forecasting are creating opportunities to computationally explore the potential for steering or control of extreme weather trajectories for societal risk reduction. We present initial…
Soil moisture-precipitation coupling (SMPC) plays a critical role in Earth's water and energy cycles but remains difficult to quantify due to synoptic-scale variability and the complex interplay of land-atmosphere processes. Here, we apply…
One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping…
Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) include various effects that result from aerosols entering a cloud, and affecting cloud properties. In general, an increase in aerosol concentration results in smaller droplet sizes which leads to larger,…
In an Earth-analogue atmosphere, water vapour is a key carrier of hydrogen in the lower atmosphere with its transport above the tropopause controlling the atmospheric hydrogen escape rate. On the Earth, this escape is limited by transport…