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The early detection of tipping points, which describe a rapid departure from a stable state, is an important theoretical and practical challenge. Tipping points are most commonly associated with the disappearance of steady-state or periodic…
Understanding the complex interactions between land surface and atmosphere is essential to improve weather and climate predictions. Various numerical experiments have suggested that regions of strong coupling strength (hotspots) are located…
Increasing greenhouse gases will change many aspects of the Earth's climate, from its annual mean to the frequency of extremes such as heat waves and droughts. Here we report that the current generation of climate models predicts a delay in…
Climate change projections for boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America has beenaddressed by statistical downscaling (SD) using the principal component regression with sea-level pressure (SLP) as the predictor variable. The SD model…
Vegetation in semi-arid ecosystems frequently organizes into spatially heterogeneous mosaics that regulate ecosystem functioning, productivity, and resilience. These patterns arise from local biological interactions, including facilitation…
The role of correlations in self-organised critical (SOC) phenomena is investigated by studying the Abelian Manna Model (AMM) in two dimensions. Local correlations of the debris left behind after avalanches are destroyed by re-arranging…
The early prediction of tipping points, distinguished by sudden and catastrophic shifts from stable states, poses a challenging task that would enable us to assess the impending threat across natural and engineered systems. This threat…
Calculating transition probabilities between different states of multistable climate tipping systems is computationally challenging in high-dimensional models. Targeted algorithms, such as the Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS)…
This work investigates climate--projections over a transitional region between dry and wet climates, the Iberian Peninsula (IP). With this purpose, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR GCMs…
This thesis assesses the influence of astronomical phenomena on the Earth's biosphere and climate. I examine in particular the relevance of both the path of the Sun through the Galaxy and the evolution of the Earth's orbital parameters in…
We use a simple, semi-analytic, column model to better understand the meridional structure of the tropopause height and the future changes in its height and temperature associated with global warming. The model allows us to separate the…
The predictability of the atmosphere at short and long time scales, associated with the coupling to the ocean, is explored in a new version of the Modular Arbitrary-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model (MAOOAM), based on a 2-layer quasi-geostrophic…
The land-atmosphere coupling strength has been defined as the percentage of precipitation variability explained by the variation of soil moisture in the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE). While it is useful to identify…
The Amazon floodplains represent important surfaces of highly valuable ecosystems, yet they remain neglected from protected areas. While the efficiency of the protected area network of the Amazon basin may be jeopardised by climate change,…
We discuss tipping phenomena (critical transitions) in nonautonomous systems using an example of a bistable ecosystem model with environmental changes represented by time-varying parameters [Scheffer et al., Ecosystems, 11 (2008), pp.…
Carbonate-silicate weathering feedback is thought to stabilize Earth's climate on geologic timescales. If climate warms, faster mineral dissolution and increased rainfall speed up weathering, increasing CO2 drawdown and opposing the initial…
The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) of northwestern Alberta is one of the largest inland freshwater deltas in the world, laying at the confluence of the Peace and Athabasca Rivers. The PAD is recognized as a having unique ecological…
The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and its amplitude on the Euro-Mediterranean summer climate is studied in two climate models, namely CNRM-CM5 and EC-Earth3P. Large ensembles of idealized experiments have been…
Monitoring the dynamics of global land-ocean cover is fundamental for regulating the Earth's climate and sustaining terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, existing datasets and research often exhibit limitations in temporal resolution…
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are crucial components of the hydrological cycle and often produce flash floods. Given their impact, it is crucial to understand how they will change under a warming climate. This study uses a satellite-…