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Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
This article deals with the investigation of the influence of topography and coastlines on the dynamics of the depth averaged Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), driven by wind and atmospheric pressure. This is achieved with the help of a…
Prediction of climate tipping is challenging due to the lack of recent observation of actual climate tipping. Despite many previous efforts to accurately predict the existence and timing of climate tippings under specific climate scenarios,…
Earth system tipping elements have been predominantly investigated for their potential to trigger \textit{negative} ecological, climatic, and societal shifts. Yet, an overlooked but seminal avenue exists in the form of \textit{positive}…
Abrupt transitions are a central concern in climate and ecological research, and may arise when critical thresholds known as tipping points are crossed. However, previous work has shown that finite-time overshoots of tipping points can be…
Vertical motions across the ocean are central to processes, like CO$_2$ fixation, heat removal or pollutant transport, which are essential to the Earth's climate. This work explores 3D conveyor routes {associated with} the Atlantic…
The theory of alternative stable states and tipping points has garnered substantial attention in the last several decades. It predicts potential critical transitions from one ecosystem state to a completely different state under increasing…
The terrestrial water cycle links the soil and atmosphere moisture reservoirs through four fluxes: precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and atmospheric moisture convergence (net import of water vapor to balance runoff). Each of these…
As a result of their important role in weather and the global hydrological cycle, understanding atmospheric rivers' (ARs) connection to synoptic-scale climate patterns and atmospheric dynamics has become increasingly important. In addition…
Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robust results of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this success model-to-model variability…
The influence of forest loss on rainfall remains poorly understood. Addressing this challenge Spracklen et al. recently presented a pan-tropical study of rainfall and land-cover that showed that satellite-derived rainfall measures were…
Vital parts of the climate system, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, are at risk even within the aspired aims of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 -- 2{\deg}C. These so-called natural tipping elements are…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a crucial part of the climate system because of its associated northward heat transport. The present-day MOC is sensitive to freshwater anomalies and may collapse to a state with a…
The current configuration of the ocean overturning involves upwelling predominantly in the Southern Ocean and sinking predominantly in the Atlantic basin. The reasons for this remain unclear, as both models and paleoclimatic observations…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…
A statistical indicator for dynamic stability known as the $\Upsilon$ indicator is used to gauge the stability and hence detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced 5-box model of the North-Atlantic Meridional…
One of the largest source of uncertainties in the predictions of stellar models comes from the internal transport mechanisms. In close massive binaries, previous theoretical studies suggest that tides systematically boost chemical mixing.…
We present a modified water-vegetation model to investigate the mechanistic relationship between infiltration-soil moisture feedback and vegetation pattern in arid/semi-arid ecosystems. Employing Turing pattern formation theory, we drive…
Tipping points are critical thresholds of parameters where tiny perturbations can lead to abrupt and large qualitative changes in the systems. Many real-world systems that exhibit tipping behavior can be represented as networks of…
Mesoscale convective systems MCSs play a central role in tropical rainfall and are closely linked to extreme precipitation and large scale variability. However, a quantitative understanding of their environmental controls remains…