Related papers: Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainfo…
The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the Earth's tipping elements and may lose stability under ongoing climate change. Recently a decrease in tropical rainforest resilience has been identified globally from remotely sensed vegetation…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the global climate, known to be a tipping element, as it could collapse under global warming. The main objective of this study is to compute the probability…
Tipping points occur in diverse systems in various disciplines such as ecology, climate science, economy or engineering. Tipping points are critical thresholds in system parameters or state variables at which a tiny perturbation can lead to…
There is increasing concern that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may collapse this century with a disrupting societal impact on large parts of the world. Preliminary estimates of the probability of such an AMOC…
Understanding how vegetation loss alters rainfall remains a major challenge in climate and hydrological science, as deforestation modifies precipitation through heterogeneous, seasonal and nonlinear land-atmosphere feedbacks. Existing…
In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping…
There is strong evidence that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is in a bi-stable regime and hence it is important to determine probabilities and pathways for noise-induced transitions between its…
The results of a recent simulation with a complex global climate model suggest that the overturning component of the freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic could be used as an early-warning indicator of an AMOC…
Climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but the magnitude is highly uncertain. Some of this uncertainty is structural, as most climate models neglect increasing…
Observations from the RAPID array near 26.5$^\circ$N indicate a linear decline in the AMOC over the past two decades, linked to contrasting boundary changes: a weakening western boundary contribution partly compensated by strengthening at…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth's climate. Evidence indicates a twentieth-century weakening, and enhanced freshwater input to the subpolar North Atlantic may further reduce overturning…
The tipping of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to a 'shutdown' state due to changes in the freshwater forcing of the ocean is of particular interest and concern due to its widespread ramifications, including a…
The Amazon rainforest (ARF) is threatened by deforestation and climate change, which could trigger a regime shift to a savanna-like state. Previous work suggesting declining resilience in recent decades was based only on local resilience…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
In this study, we investigate how specific micro interaction structures (motifs) affect the occurrence of tipping cascades on networks of stylized tipping elements. We compare the properties of cascades in Erd\"os-R\'enyi networks and an…
Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are filamentary moisture pathways responsible for a large fraction of extreme precipitation and often occur as interacting filament bundles within the same synoptic regime. Existing diagnostics typically analyze ARs…
We study hysteresis properties of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under a slowly-varying North Atlantic (20$^{\circ}$N -- 50$^{\circ}$N) freshwater flux forcing in state-of-the-art Global Climate Model (GCM), the…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), driven by heat exchange between the air and sea, pose a substantial risk to many communities around the world. Accurate characterization of the subsurface ocean thermal response to TC passage is crucial for accurate…
We address the issue of resilience of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) given the many indications that this dynamical system is in a multi-stable regime. A novel approach to resilience based on rare event techniques is…
In this paper, we discuss the impact of a rain forest canopy on the statistical characteristics of atmospheric turbulence. This issue is of particular interest for understanding on how the Amazon terrestrial biosphere interact with the…