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Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Oliver Mehling , Katinka Bellomo , Jost von Hardenberg

Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-10 Jasmine Noory

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a much studied component of the climate system, because its suspected multistability is associated with tipping behaviour yielding potentially large regional and global climatic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Johannes Lohmann , Valerio Lucarini

All climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but most models neglect increasing runoff from the Greenland ice sheet. Greenland meltwater is expected to exacerbate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Oliver Mehling , Katinka Bellomo , Federico Fabiano , Marion Devilliers , Michele Petrini , Susanna Corti , Jost von Hardenberg

The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynamical response to climate variability remains poorly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Han Huang , Ningning Tao , Hongyu Wang , Teng Liu , Fei Xie , Xichen Li , Yongwen Zhang , Niklas Boers , Jingfang Fan , Deliang Chen , Xiaosong Chen

The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-10-26 Andrea A. Cimatoribus , Matthijs den Toom , Sybren S. Drijfhout , Henk A. Dijkstra

A catastrophic collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will have serious impacts on global climate. Based on eight AMOC proxies across the Atlantic basin Boers claimed to have found Early Warning Signals (EWS)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-22 Xianyao Chen , Ka-Kit Tung

We study the physical processes involved in the potential influence of Amazon (AM) hydroclimatology over the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) at interannual timescales, by analyzing time series of the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-04 Alejandro Builes-Jaramillo , Norbert Marwan , Germán Poveda , Jürgen Kurths

Amazon forest dieback is seen as a potential tipping point under climate change. These concerns are partly based-on an early coupled climate-carbon cycle simulation, that produced unusually strong drying and warming in Amazonia. In…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-14 Isobel Parry , Paul Ritchie , Peter Cox

Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-11-01 Kerstin Lux , Peter Ashwin , Richard Wood , Christian Kuehn

With the recent increase in deforestation, forest fires, and regional temperatures, the concerns around the rapid and complete collapse of the Amazon rainforest ecosystem have heightened. The thresholds of deforestation and the temperature…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-04 Adam Giammarese , Jacob Brown , Nishant Malik

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) distributes heat and salt into the Northern Hemisphere via a warm surface current toward the subpolar North Atlantic, where water sinks and returns southwards as a deep cold current.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-08-01 John Bailie , Bernd Krauskopf

Machine Learning has become a pervasive tool in climate science applications. However, current models fail to address nonstationarity induced by anthropogenic alterations in greenhouse emissions and do not routinely quantify the uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-22 Simon Dräger , Maike Sonnewald

Anticipating a tipping point, a transition from one stable steady state to another, is a problem of broad relevance due to the ubiquity of the phenomenon in diverse fields. The steady-state nature of the dynamics about a tipping point makes…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-18 Shirin Panahi , Ling-Wei Kong , Mohammadamin Moradi , Zheng-Meng Zhai , Bryan Glaz , Mulugeta Haile , Ying-Cheng Lai

Anticipating critical transitions in the Earth system is of great societal relevance, yet there may be intrinsic limitations to their predictability. For instance, from the theory of dynamical systems possessing multiple chaotic attractors,…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-01-30 Oliver Mehling , Reyk Börner , Valerio Lucarini

The extent of anthropogenic influence on the Earths climate warrants studies of the ocean as a major player. The ocean circulation is important for transporting properties like heat, carbon and nutrients. A supposed major conduit is the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-11-14 Hans van Haren

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exerts a major influence on global climate. There is much debate about whether the current strong AMOC may collapse as a result of anthropogenic forcing and/or internal variability.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-24 R. Chapman , P. Ashwin , J. Baker , R. A. Wood

Past research has shown that multiple climate subsystems might undergo abrupt shifts, such as the Arctic Winter sea ice or the Amazon rainforest, but there are large uncertainties regarding their timing and spatial extent. In this study we…

Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-22 Johannes Lohmann

The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a system of surface and deep currents encompassing all ocean basins, crucial to the Earth's climate. Detecting potential climatic changes in the MOC first requires a careful characterisation…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-08-26 Tomas Jonathan