Related papers: Seasonal Changes -- Time for Paradigm Shift
Weather is a key production factor in agricultural crop production and at the same time the most significant and least controllable source of peril in agriculture. These effects of weather on agricultural crop production have triggered a…
Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…
Leaf Area index is widely used metric for the assessment of vegetation dynamics and can be used to assess the impact of regional/local climate conditions. The underlying continuity of high resolution spatio-temporal phenological processes…
Time series forecasting is crucial for various applications, such as weather, traffic, electricity, and energy predictions. Currently, common time series forecasting methods are based on Transformers. However, existing approaches primarily…
Short-term forecasting of vegetation dynamics is a key enabler for data-driven decision support in precision agriculture. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) forecasting from satellite observations, however, remains challenging…
There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…
In this paper, we propose fitting unobserved component models to represent the dynamic evolution of bivariate systems of centre and log-range temperatures obtained monthly from minimum/maximum temperatures observed at a given location. In…
Monitoring vegetation dynamics is crucial for addressing global environmental challenges like degradation and deforestation, but traditional remote sensing methods are often complex and resource-intensive. To overcome these barriers, we…
We have analyzed phenology data and protein configurations from molecular dynamics simulations with the nonlinear forecasting method proposed by May and Sugihara. Our primary focus in this work is to characterize the dynamic state of a…
Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…
We introduce a novel geometry-oriented methodology, based on the emerging tools of topological data analysis, into the change point detection framework. The key rationale is that change points are likely to be associated with changes in…
Quantifying long-term historical climate is fundamental to understanding recent climate change. Most instrumentally recorded climate data are only available for the past 200 years, so proxy observations from natural archives are often…
This paper describes how to analyze the influence of Earth system variables on the errors when providing temperature forecasts. The initial framework to get the data has been based on previous research work, which resulted in a very…
Do ecosystems primarily reflect evolutionary history or current environment? Predicting land-atmosphere exchange hinges on this unresolved question. Plant traits adapt to particular environments over evolutionary timescales, yet their…
We propose a novel Bayesian framework for changepoint detection in large-scale spherical spatiotemporal data, with broad applicability in environmental and climate sciences. Our approach models changepoints as spatially dependent…
The present study examined a multi-year reanalysis dataset (ERA5-Land) including numerous drought events across the Iberian Peninsula, with a specific emphasis on the 2005 episode. The mechanisms underlying the transition from…
One of the first beings affected by changes in the climate are trees, one of our most vital resources. In this study tree species interaction and the response to climate in different ecological environments is observed by applying a joint…
Motivated by the climate crisis that is currently ravaging the planet, we propose and analyze a novel framework for the evolution of anthropogenic climate impact in which the evolution of human environmental behavior and environmental…
1. Animal movement patterns contribute to our understanding of variation in breeding success and survival of individuals, and the implications for population dynamics. 2. Over time, sensor technology for measuring movement patterns has…
To make informed decisions in natural environments that change over time, humans must update their beliefs as new observations are gathered. Studies exploring human inference as a dynamical process that unfolds in time have focused on…