Related papers: Seasonal Changes -- Time for Paradigm Shift
Modeling spatial heterogeneity and associated critical transitions remains a fundamental challenge in geography and environmental science. While conventional Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and deep learning models have improved…
With climate change intensifying fire weather conditions globally, accurate seasonal wildfire forecasting has become critical for disaster preparedness and ecosystem management. We introduce FireCastNet, a novel deep learning architecture…
Accurate estimation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is essential to understanding changes in the water cycle, which are expected to intensify in the context of climate change. Current global ET products are derived from…
Changes in the atmospheric composition alter the magnitude and partitioning between the downward propagating solar and atmospheric longwave radiative fluxes heating the Earth's surface. These changes are computed by radiative transfer codes…
Climate change results in altered air and water temperatures. Increases affect physicochemical properties, such as oxygen concentration, and can shift species distribution and survival, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and…
Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…
In environmental and climate data, there is often an interest in determining if and when changes occur in a system. Such changes may result from localized sources in space and time like a volcanic eruption or climate geoengineering events.…
Past research has shown that multiple climate subsystems might undergo abrupt shifts, such as the Arctic Winter sea ice or the Amazon rainforest, but there are large uncertainties regarding their timing and spatial extent. In this study we…
The surface evapotranspiration (SFCEVP) plays an essential role in climate, being the link between the hydrological and energy cycles. Therefore, how it is approximated and its implication in the regional climate are important aspects to…
The Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity has received much attention because of its relevance and importance for global warming policymaking. This paper focuses on the Earth's \emph{thermal inertia time scale} which has received…
Climate change is global, yet its concrete impacts can strongly vary between different locations in the same region. Seasonal weather forecasts currently operate at the mesoscale (> 1 km). For more targeted mitigation and adaptation,…
This paper presents a statistical analysis of structural changes in the Central England temperature series, one of the longest surface temperature records available. A changepoint analysis is performed to detect abrupt changes, which can be…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
Climate extremes present escalating risks to agriculture intensifying the need for reliable multi-hazard early warning systems (EWS). The situation is evolving due to climate change and hence such systems should have the intelligent to…
A new method of regime shift detection in the correlation coefficient is proposed. The method is designed to find multiple change-points with unknown locations in time series. It signals a possible regime shift in real time and allows for…
Temporal sampling does more than add another axis to the vector of observables. Instead, under the recognition that how objects change (and move) in time speaks directly to the physics underlying astronomical phenomena, next-generation…
Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…
Uncovering meaningful regularities in complex oscillatory signals is a challenging problem with applications across a wide range of disciplines. Here we present a novel approach, based on the Hilbert transform (HT). We show that temporal…
Range migrations in response to climate change, invasive species and the emergence of novel ecosystems highlight the importance of temporal turnover in community composition as a fundamental part of global change in the Anthropocene.…
Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…