Related papers: Seasonal Changes -- Time for Paradigm Shift
We introduce Climate Change Valuation Adjustment (CCVA) to capture climate change impacts on CVA+FVA that are currently invisible assuming typical market practice. To discuss such impacts on CVA+FVA from changes to instantaneous hazard…
Identifying the onset of emotional stress in older patients with mood disorders and chronic pain is crucial in mental health studies. To this end, studying the associations between passively sensed variables that measure human behaviors and…
We discuss tipping phenomena (critical transitions) in nonautonomous systems using an example of a bistable ecosystem model with environmental changes represented by time-varying parameters [Scheffer et al., Ecosystems, 11 (2008), pp.…
Time series analysis finds wide applications in fields such as weather forecasting, anomaly detection, and behavior recognition. Previous methods attempted to model temporal variations directly using 1D time series. However, this has been…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…
Sea surface temperature (SST) is a fundamental determinant of global climate dynamics and economic activity. Reliable projections of future SST patterns depend critically on a rigorous characterization of the underlying spatial random…
Patterns in a semiarid ecosystem are important because they directly and indirectly affect ecological processes, biodiversity, and ecosystem resilience. Understanding the causes and effects of these patterns is critical for long-term land…
Accurate renewable energy forecasting is essential to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and enabling grid decarbonization. However, current approaches fail to effectively integrate the rich spatial context of weather patterns with their…
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting, which predicts climate conditions from several weeks to months in advance, represents a critical frontier for agricultural planning, energy management, and disaster preparedness. However, it…
Many biological processes, including plant leafout and flowering, occur once cumulative temperatures reach a threshold (the thermal-sum model). In this way, temperatures are thought to coordinate the timing of biological events. But growing…
The time-varying geomagnetic field is a superposition of contributions from multiple internal and external current systems. A major source of geomagnetic variations at periods less than a few years are current systems external to the solid…
Weather regimes describe the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes in terms of a few circulation states that modulate regional surface weather. Subseasonal forecasts of prevailing weather regimes have proven skillful and…
We use the technique of wavelet analysis to quantitatively investigate the role of solar variability in forcing terrestrial climate change on solar cycle timescales (roughly 11 years). We examine the connection between mean annual solar…
Previous research has demonstrated that specific states of the climate system can lead to enhanced subseasonal predictability (i.e., state-dependent predictability). However, biases in Earth system models can affect the representation of…
Thermodynamic conventions suffer from describing dynamical distinctions, especially when the structural and energetic changes induced by localized rare events are insignificant. By using the ensemble theory in the trajectory space, we…
The prediction of climate change and its impact on extreme weather events is one of the great societal and intellectual challenges of our time. The first part of the problem is to make the distinction between weather and climate. The second…
Climate models play a crucial role in understanding the effect of environmental and man-made changes on climate to help mitigate climate risks and inform governmental decisions. Large global climate models such as the Community Earth System…
Climate change is affecting and will increasingly affect astronomical observations. In this paper, we investigated the role some key weather parameters play in the quality of astronomical observations, and analysed their long-term trends…
Accurate global medium-range weather forecasting is fundamental to Earth system science. Most existing Transformer-based forecasting models adopt vision-centric architectures that neglect the Earth's spherical geometry and zonal…
Skillful seasonal prediction of lightning is crucial over several global hotspot regions, as it causes severe damages to infrastructures and losses of human life. While major emphasis has been given for predicting rainfall, prediction of…