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In this paper we present a regression based model for day-ahead electricity spot prices. We estimate the considered linear regression model by the lasso estimation method. The lasso approach allows for many possible parameters in the model,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-26 Florian Ziel

This paper develops learning-augmented algorithms for energy trading in volatile electricity markets. The basic problem is to sell (or buy) $k$ units of energy for the highest revenue (lowest cost) over uncertain time-varying prices, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Russell Lee , Bo Sun , Mohammad Hajiesmaili , John C. S. Lui

Probabilistic electricity price forecasting (PEPF) is vital for short-term electricity markets, yet the multivariate nature of day-ahead prices - spanning 24 consecutive hours - remains underexplored. At the same time, real-time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-27 Simon Hirsch

Weather forecasting is crucial for managing risks and economic planning, particularly in tropical Africa, where extreme events severely impact livelihoods. Yet, existing forecasting methods often struggle with the region's complex,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Ange-Clement Akazan , Verlon Roel Mbingui , Gnankan Landry Regis N'guessan , Issa Karambal

Electricity price forecasting supports decision-making in energy markets and asset operation. Probabilistic forecasts are increasingly adopted to explicitly quantify uncertainty, typically issued as quantile predictions or ensembles of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-22 Simon Hirsch , Florian Ziel

The article describes the use of deep Q-learning models in the problems of sales time series analytics. In contrast to supervised machine learning which is a kind of passive learning using historical data, Q-learning is a kind of active…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-07 Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko

This paper presents some considerations regarding the prediction of the electrical energy consumption. It is well known that the central element of a microeconomic analysis is represented by the economical agents actions, actions that…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-03-28 Cristian Vasar , Octavian Prostean , Ioan Filip , Iosif Szeidert

Accurate forecasts of electricity spot prices are essential to the daily operational and planning decisions made by power producers and distributors. Typically, point forecasts of these quantities suffice, particularly in the Nord Pool…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-07 Gunnhildur H. Steinbakk , Alex Lenkoski , Ragnar Bang Huseby , Anders Løland , Tor Arne Øigård

Nuclear mass prediction is one of the core issues in nuclear physics research, yet it faces the challenge of small-sample datasets with high complexity. This study introduces the Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) into the refinement of…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2026-03-17 Yanhua Lu , Tianshuai Shang , Pengxiang Du , Jian Li , Haozhao Liang

A study on power market price forecasting by deep learning is presented. As one of the most successful deep learning frameworks, the LSTM (Long short-term memory) neural network is utilized. The hourly prices data from the New England and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-24 Yongli Zhu , Songtao Lu , Renchang Dai , Guangyi Liu , Zhiwei Wang

Electricity market price predictions enable energy market participants to shape their consumption or supply while meeting their economic and environmental objectives. By utilizing the basic properties of the supply-demand matching process…

Applications · Statistics 2019-06-11 Ana Radovanovic , Tommaso Nesti , Bokan Chen

Time series classification is a relevant step supporting decision-making processes in various domains, and deep neural models have shown promising performance in this respect. Despite significant advancements in deep learning, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Irina Barašin , Blaž Bertalanič , Mihael Mohorčič , Carolina Fortuna

Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting (DAEPF) is critical for the efficient operation of power systems, but extreme condition and market anomalies pose significant challenges to existing forecasting methods. To overcome these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Boyan Tang , Xuanhao Ren , Peng Xiao , Shunbo Lei , Xiaorong Sun , Jianghua Wu

Forecasting agricultural markets remains challenging due to nonlinear dynamics, structural breaks, and sparse data. A long-standing belief holds that simple time-series methods outperform more advanced alternatives. This paper provides the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Le Wang , Boyuan Zhang

The policy environment of countries changes rapidly, influencing macro-level indicators such as the Energy Security Index. However, this index is only reported annually, limiting its responsiveness to short-term fluctuations. To address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Mahdi Goldani

In this paper we seek to demonstrate the predictability of stock market returns and explain the nature of this return predictability. To this end, we introduce investors with different investment horizons into the news-driven, analytic,…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-03-30 Dimitri Kroujiline , Maxim Gusev , Dmitry Ushanov , Sergey V. Sharov , Boris Govorkov

While the space of renewable energy forecasting has received significant attention in the last decade, literature has primarily focused on machine learning models that train on only one objective at a time. A host of classification (and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-31 Aswin Kannan

This paper presents a machine learning framework for electricity demand forecasting across diverse geographical regions using the gradient boosting algorithm XGBoost. The model integrates historical electricity demand and comprehensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Kevin Steijn , Vamsi Priya Goli , Enrico Antonini

This paper applies a recurrent neural network (RNN) method to forecast cotton and oil prices. We show how these new tools from machine learning, particularly Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) models, complement traditional methods. Our results…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-18 Racine Ly , Fousseini Traore , Khadim Dia

Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) relocate learnable nonlinearities from nodes to edges, demonstrating remarkable capabilities in scientific machine learning and interpretable modeling. However, current KAN implementations suffer from…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Alastair Poole , Stig McArthur , Saravan Kumar