Related papers: Markov-Functional Models with Local Drift

This note develops shortly the theory of time-inhomogeneous additive functionals and is a useful support for the analysis of time-dependent Markov processes and related topics. It is a significant tool for the analysis of BSDEs in law. In…

An approach to modelling volatile financial return series using stationary d-vine copula processes combined with Lebesgue-measure-preserving transformations known as v-transforms is proposed. By developing a method of stochastically…

We study a class of Markov processes that combine local dynamics, arising from a fixed Markov process, with regenerations arising at a state-dependent rate. We give conditions under which such processes possess a given target distribution…

We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…

We build on a previous statistical model for distributed systems and formulate it in a way that the deterministic and stochastic processes within the system are clearly separable. We show how internal fluctuations can be analysed in a…

We are now witnessing the increasing availability of event stream data, i.e., a sequence of events with each event typically being denoted by the time it occurs and its mark information (e.g., event type). A fundamental problem is to model…

In order to deal with the question of the existence of a calibrated local stochastic volatility model in finance, we investigate a class of McKean--Vlasov equations where a minimal continuity assumption is imposed on the coefficients.…

We present a computational approach for generating Markov bases for multi-way contingency tables whose cells counts might be constrained by fixed marginals and by lower and upper bounds. Our framework includes tables with structural zeros…

The usage of a spot volatility estimate based on a volatility decomposition in a time-changed price-model according to the trading times is investigated. In this model clock-time volatility splits up into the product of tick-time volatility…

We establish convergence to an invariant measure as time tends to infinity, for a large class of (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic volatility models. Our arguments are based on a novel coupling idea for Markov chains which also extends to…

It is a market practice to express market-implied volatilities in some parametric form. The most popular parametrizations are based on or inspired by an underlying stochastic model, like the Heston model (SVI method) or the SABR model (SABR…

We propose a framework for computing, optimizing and integrating with respect to a smooth marginal likelihood in statistical models that involve high-dimensional parameters/latent variables and continuous low-dimensional hyperparameters.…

We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

In this paper we propose an efficient variance reduction approach for additive functionals of Markov chains relying on a novel discrete time martingale representation. Our approach is fully non-asymptotic and does not require the knowledge…

We introduce and test an algorithm that adaptively estimates large deviation functions characterizing the fluctuations of additive functionals of Markov processes in the long-time limit. These functions play an important role for predicting…

We address stability of a class of Markovian discrete-time stochastic hybrid systems. This class of systems is characterized by the state-space of the system being partitioned into a safe or target set and its exterior, and the dynamics of…

We introduce a class of stochastic advection problems amenable to analysis of turbulent transport. The statistics of the flow field are represented as a continuous time Markov process, a choice that captures the intuitive notion of…

This paper introduces a new parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models. the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, following a hidden Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm…

We introduce a novel distribution-based estimator for the Hurst parameter of log-volatility, leveraging the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to assess the scaling behavior of entire distributions rather than individual moments. To address the…