Related papers: Markov-Functional Models with Local Drift
In the present paper, we give some examples of stochastic differential equations which have delicateness in the Markov and strong Markov properties, the uniqueness locally in time and globally in time, and initial conditions. Moreover, we…
We consider additive functionals of stationary Markov processes and show that under Kipnis-Varadhan type conditions they converge in rough path topology to a Stratonovich Brownian motion, with a correction to the Levy area that can be…
This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…
In this paper, we consider a generic interest rate market in the presence of roll-over risk, which generates spreads in spot/forward term rates. We do not require classical absence of arbitrage and rely instead on a minimal market viability…
We introduce a Bayesian framework for indirect local clustering of functional data, leveraging B-spline basis expansions and a novel dependent random partition model. By exploiting the local support properties of B-splines, our approach…
We introduce a new definition of speculative bubbles in discrete-time models based on the discounted stock price losing mass at some finite drop-down under an equivalent martingale measure. We provide equivalent probabilistic…
An almost-Markovian model equation is proposed for Fourier modes of velocity field of isotropic turbulence whose statistical properties are identical to those governed by equations of Local Energy Transfer theory of turbulence [McComb et…
Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this…
We provide general methods for explicitly constructing strict Lyapunov functions for fully nonlinear slowly time-varying systems. Our results apply to cases where the given dynamics and corresponding frozen dynamics are not necessarily…
Several versions of It\^{o}'s formula have been obtained in the context of the functional stochastic calculus. Here, we revisit this topic in two ways. First, by defining a notion of derivative along a functional, we extend the setting of…
Markov combination is an operation that takes two statistical models and produces a third whose marginal distributions include those of the original models. Building upon and extending existing work in the Gaussian case, we develop Markov…
Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the…
We study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks by a model of returns using a semi-Markov approach. More precisely we assume that the intraday return are described by a discrete time homogeneous semi-Markov process and the…
This paper presents how to apply the stochastic collocation technique to assets that can not move below a boundary. It shows that the polynomial collocation towards a lognormal distribution does not work well. Then, the potentials issues of…
A nonhomogeneous hidden semi-Markov model is proposed to segment toroidal time series according to a finite number of latent regimes and, simultaneously, estimate the influence of time-varying covariates on the process' survival under each…
We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…
The heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is revised by modeling the joint distribution of the four partial-volatility terms therein involved. Namely, today's, yesterday's, last week's and last month's volatility components. The joint…
We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…
Path-dependence is a defining feature of many real-world systems, with applications ranging from population dynamics to rough volatility models and electricity spot prices. In stochastic Volterra equations (SVEs), such dependence is encoded…
While local basis function (LBF) estimation algorithms, commonly used for identifying/tracking systems with time-varying parameters, demonstrate good performance under the assumption of normally distributed measurement noise, the estimation…