Related papers: Markov-Functional Models with Local Drift
The slow processes of metastable stochastic dynamical systems are difficult to access by direct numerical simulation due the sampling problem. Here, we suggest an approach for modeling the slow parts of Markov processes by approximating the…
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
We propose a hybrid estimation procedure to estimate global fixed parameters and subject-specific random effects in a mixed fractional Black-Scholes model based on discrete-time observations. Specifically, we consider $N$ independent…
Markov models are often used to capture the temporal patterns of sequential data for statistical learning applications. While the Hidden Markov modeling-based learning mechanisms are well studied in literature, we analyze a…
In financial markets, low prices are generally associated with high volatilities and vice-versa, this well known stylized fact usually being referred to as leverage effect. We propose a local volatility model, given by a stochastic…
We consider monotonic, multiple regression for a set of contiguous regions (lattice data). The regression functions permissibly vary between regions and exhibit geographical structure. We develop new Bayesian non-parametric methodology…
We introduce a flexible method to simultaneously infer both the drift and volatility functions of a discretely observed scalar diffusion. We introduce spline bases to represent these functions and develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo…
We address the problem of community detection in networks by introducing a general definition of Markov stability, based on the difference between the probability fluxes of a Markov chain on the network at different time scales. The…
Stochastic methods for minimizing a convex integral functional, as initiated by Robbins and Monro in the early 1950s, rely on the evaluation of a gradient (or subgradient if the function is not smooth) and moving in the corresponding…
Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over…
We study time-changed Markov processes to speed up the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The time-changed process is defined by adjusting the speed of time of a base process via a user-chosen, state-dependent…
Functional time series data frequently appears in econometric analyses, where the functions of interest are subject to some shape constraints, including monotonicity and convexity, as typical of the estimation of the Lorenz curve. This…
Numerous empirical proofs indicate the adequacy of the time discrete auto-regressive stochastic volatility models introduced by Taylor in the description of the log-returns of financial assets. The pricing and hedging of contingent products…
To provide a more accurate description of the driving behaviors in vehicle queues, a namely Markov-Gap cellular automata model is proposed in this paper. It views the variation of the gap between two consequent vehicles as a Markov process…
In recent years, there has been a substantive interest in rough volatility models. In this class of models, the local behavior of stochastic volatility is much more irregular than semimartingales and resembles that of a fractional Brownian…
We present an algorithm for the calibration of local volatility from market option prices through deep self-consistent learning, by approximating both market option prices and local volatility using deep neural networks. Our method uses the…
We consider a linear stochastic fluid network under Markov modulation, with a focus on the probability that the joint storage level attains a value in a rare set at a given point in time. The main objective is to develop efficient…
In this paper we develop a novel hidden Markov graphical model to investigate time-varying interconnectedness between different financial markets. To identify conditional correlation structures under varying market conditions and…
We consider iterated function systems (finite or countable), together with linear and continuous operators on Hilbert spaces, which enable us to construct Markov-type operators. Under suitable conditions, these Markov-type operators have…
We obtain the posterior distribution of a random process conditioned on observing the empirical frequencies of a finite sample path. We find under a rather broad assumption on the "dependence structure" of the process, {\em c.f.}…