Related papers: Simple yet effective: a comparative study of stati…
A simple study of the relationship between the QBO and the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, both in the Basin and hitting the U.S. coastline, demonstrates that the QBO is not a particularly useful index to help predict hurricane…
We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of historical annual hurricane numbers, and we perform a backtesting study to find the length of…
We compare two methods for making predictions of the climatological distribution of the number of hurricanes making landfall along short sections of the North American coastline. The first method uses local data, and the second method uses…
One possible method for the year-ahead prediction of hurricane numbers would be to make a year-ahead prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), and then to apply relationships that link SST to hurricane numbers. As a first step towards…
We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling…
There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…
One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion.…
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall…
In previous work, we have shown how to combine long and short historical baselines to make predictions of future hurricane numbers. We now ask: how should such combinations change if we are interested in predicting the future number of…
We consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First, one might regress historical numbers of landfalling hurricanes onto historical SSTs, and…
Fast and accurate prediction of hurricane evolution from genesis onwards is needed to reduce loss of life and enhance community resilience. In this work, a novel model development methodology for predicting storm trajectory is proposed…
We perform an objective change-point analysis on 106 years of historical hurricane number data. The algorithm we use looks at all possible combinations of change-points and compares them in terms of the variances of the differences between…
This paper describes a novel machine learning (ML) framework for tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasting, combining multiple ML techniques and utilizing diverse data sources. Our multimodal framework, called Hurricast, efficiently…
Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…
We describe results from the second stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. We now attempt to model the unconditional variance of fluctuations around…
The aggravating effects of climate change and the growing population in hurricane-prone areas escalate the challenges in large-scale hurricane evacuations. While hurricane preparedness and response strategies vastly rely on the accuracy and…
We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together observed hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the averaging length…
Atlantic Canada faces significant hurricane threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood…
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple…