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Viruses evolve in the background of host immune systems that exert selective pressure and drive viral evolutionary trajectories. This interaction leads to different evolutionary patterns in antigenic space. Examples observed in nature…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-20 Jacopo Marchi , Michael Lässig , Thierry Mora , Aleksandra M. Walczak

Antigenic variation is the main immune escape mechanism for RNA viruses like influenza or SARS-CoV-2. While high mutation rates promote antigenic escape, they also induce large mutational loads and reduced fitness. It remains unclear how…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-24 Victor Chardès , Andrea Mazzolini , Thierry Mora , Aleksandra M. Walczak

As pathogens spread in a population of hosts, immunity is built up and the pool of susceptible individuals is depleted. This generates selective pressure, to which many human RNA viruses, such as influenza virus or SARS-CoV-2, respond with…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-08-29 Pierre Barrat-Charlaix , Richard A. Neher

The evolution of many microbes and pathogens, including circulating viruses such as seasonal influenza, is driven by immune pressure from the host population. In turn, the immune systems of infected populations get updated, chasing viruses…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-06-01 Jacopo Marchi , Michael Lässig , Aleksandra M. Walczak , Thierry Mora

In this paper we study intra-host viral adaptation by antigenic cooperation - a mechanism of immune escape that serves as an alternative to the standard mechanism of escape by continuous genomic diversification and allows to explain a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-04-07 Leonid Bunimovich , Athulya Ram , Pavel Skums

Antigenic escape constitutes the main mechanism allowing rapidly evolving viruses to achieve endemicity. Beyond granting immune escape, empirical evidence also suggests that mutations of viruses might increase their inter-host…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-20 David Soriano-Paños

The evolutionary dynamics of human Influenza A virus presents a challenging theoretical problem. An extremely high mutation rate allows the virus to escape, at each epidemic season, the host immune protection elicited by previous…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-11-30 Lorenzo Taggi , Francesca Colaiori , Vittorio Loreto , Francesca Tria

Influenza viruses undergo continual antigenic evolution allowing mutant viruses to evade host immunity acquired to previous virus strains. Antigenic phenotype is often assessed through pairwise measurement of cross-reactivity between…

Rapidly evolving viruses use antigenic drift as a key mechanism to evade host immunity and persist in real populations. While traditional models of antigenic drift and epidemic spread rely on low-dimensional antigenic spaces, genomic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-06-05 Santiago Lamata-Otín , Octavian C. Rotita-Ion , Alex Arenas , David Soriano-Paños , Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes

Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-09-26 Chiara Poletto , Michele Tizzoni , Vittoria Colizza

The adaptive immune system engages in an arms race with evolving viruses, trying to generate new responses to viral strains that continually move away from the set of variants that have already elicited a functional immune response. In…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-04 David A. Kessler , Herbert Levine

The increase in the connectivity between hosts in recent times has facilitated the emergence of more aggressive mutant viral strains, making their containment and eradication significantly more challenging compared to the original variants.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-02-27 Javier López-Pedrares , M. Elena Vázquez-Cendón , Alberto P. Muñuzuri

Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-02-07 Alberto Aleta , Andreia N. S. Hisi , Sandro Meloni , Chiara Poletto , Vittoria Colizza , Yamir Moreno

Based on a recent model of evolving viruses competing with an adapting immune system [1], we study the conditions under which a viral quasispecies can maximize its growth rate. The range of mutation rates that allows viruses to thrive is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Christel Kamp , Claus O. Wilke , Christoph Adami , Stefan Bornholdt

The vertebrate adaptive immune system provides a flexible and diverse set of molecules to neutralize pathogens. Yet, viruses such as HIV can cause chronic infections by evolving as quickly as the adaptive immune system, forming an…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-06-22 Armita Nourmohammad , Jakub Otwinowski , Joshua B. Plotkin

The design of protocols to suppress the propagation of viral infections is an enduring enterprise, especially hindered by limited knowledge of the mechanisms through which extinction of infection propagation comes about. We here report on a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-02-18 Jose A. Cuesta , Jacobo Aguirre , Jose A. Capitan , Susanna C. Manrubia

Biological systems are modular, and this modularity affects the evolution of biological systems over time and in different environments. We here develop a theory for the dynamics of evolution in a rugged, modular fitness landscape. We show…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-23 Jeong-Man Park , Man Chen , Dong Wang , Michael W. Deem

Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-07-20 Chiara Poletto , Michele Tizzoni , Vittoria Colizza

The spread of infectious disease and the evolution of antigenically distinct strains are often modeled separately, despite strong feedbacks mediated by host immune memory and heterogeneous contacts. To tackle this challenging problem, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-01 Davide Zanchetta , Vittoria Bettio , Sandro Azaele , Manlio De Domenico

We introduce a generalized version of the frog model to describe the invasion of a parasite population in a spatially structured immobile host population with host immunity on the integer line. Parasites move according to simple symmetric…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-17 Sascha Franck , Cornelia Pokalyuk
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