Evolutionary stability of antigenically escaping viruses
Abstract
Antigenic variation is the main immune escape mechanism for RNA viruses like influenza or SARS-CoV-2. While high mutation rates promote antigenic escape, they also induce large mutational loads and reduced fitness. It remains unclear how this cost-benefit trade-off selects the mutation rate of viruses. Using a traveling wave model for the co-evolution of viruses and host immune systems in a finite population, we investigate how immunity affects the evolution of the mutation rate and other non-antigenic traits, such as virulence. We first show that the nature of the wave depends on how cross-reactive immune systems are, reconciling previous approaches. The immune-virus system behaves like a Fisher wave at low cross-reactivities, and like a fitness wave at high cross-reactivities. These regimes predict different outcomes for the evolution of non-antigenic traits. At low cross-reactivities, the evolutionarily stable strategy is to maximize the speed of the wave, implying a higher mutation rate and increased virulence. At large cross-reactivities, where our estimates place H3N2 influenza, the stable strategy is to increase the basic reproductive number, keeping the mutation rate to a minimum and virulence low.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2304.11041,
title = {Evolutionary stability of antigenically escaping viruses},
author = {Victor Chardès and Andrea Mazzolini and Thierry Mora and Aleksandra M. Walczak},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2304.11041},
year = {2023}
}