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This paper initiates a study into the century-old issue of market predictability from the perspective of computational complexity. We develop a simple agent-based model for a stock market where the agents are traders equipped with simple…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2007-05-23 James Aspnes , David F. Fischer , Michael J. Fischer , Ming-Yang Kao , Alok Kumar

Expanding the ideas of the author's paper 'Nonexpansive maps and option pricing theory' (Kibernetica 34:6 (1998), 713-724) we develop a pure game-theoretic approach to option pricing, by-passing stochastic modeling. Risk neutral…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-05-03 Vassili Kolokoltsov

In the restructured electricity industry, electricity pooling markets are an oligopoly with strategic producers possessing private information (private production cost function). We focus on pooling markets where aggregate demand is…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-01-20 Mohammad Rasouli , Demosthenis Teneketzis

In a market with transaction costs, the price of a derivative can be expressed in terms of (preconsistent) price systems (after Kusuoka (1995)). In this paper, we consider a market with binomial model for stock price and discuss how to…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-10 Tzuu-Shuh Chiang , Shang-Yuan Shiu , Shuenn-Jyi Sheu

We consider Geometric Mean Market Makers -- a special type of Decentralized Exchange -- with two types of users: liquidity takers and arbitrageurs. Liquidity takers trade at prices that can create arbitrage opportunities, while arbitrageurs…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-21 Masaaki Fukasawa , Basile Maire , Marcus Wunsch

We consider the design of prediction market mechanisms known as automated market makers. We show that we can design these mechanisms via the mold of \emph{exponential family distributions}, a popular and well-studied probability…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-02-25 Jacob Abernethy , Sindhu Kutty , Sébastien Lahaie , Rahul Sami

We establish a super-replication duality in a continuous-time financial model where an investor's trades adversely affect bid- and ask-prices for a risky asset and where market resilience drives the resulting spread back towards zero at an…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-05-20 Peter Bank , Yan Dolinsky

We investigate the most common type of blockchain-based decentralized exchange, which are known as constant function market makers (CFMMs). We examine the the market microstructure around CFMMs and present a model for valuing the liquidity…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Richard Dewey , Craig Newbold

An automated market maker (AMM) provides a method for creating a decentralized exchange on the blockchain. For this purpose, individual investors lend liquidity to the AMM pool in exchange for a stream of fees earned from its operations as…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-30 Maxim Bichuch , Zachary Feinstein

The optimization of process economics within the model predictive control (MPC) formulation has given rise to a new control paradigm known as economic MPC (EMPC). Several authors have discussed the closed-loop properties of EMPC-controlled…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-11-01 Pantelis Sopasakis , Domagoj Herceg , Panagiotis Patrinos , Alberto Bemporad

Electricity markets differ in their ability to meet power imbalances in short notice in a controlled fashion. Relatively flexible markets have the ability to ramp up (or down) power flows across interties without compromising their ability…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Hossein Khazaei , Ceyhun Eksin , Roohallah Khatami , Alfredo Garcia

We propose a macroscopic market making model \`a la Avellaneda-Stoikov, using continuous processes for orders instead of discrete point processes. The model intends to bridge the gap between market making and optimal execution problems,…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-08 Ivan Guo , Shijia Jin , Kihun Nam

The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. Demand and supply are balanced on a knife-edge because electric power cannot be economically stored, end user demand is…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-07 Rafal Weron

The primary challenge of market making in spot precious metals is navigating the liquidity that is mainly provided by futures contracts. The Exchange for Physical (EFP) spread, which is the price difference between futures and spot, plays a…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-21 Alexander Barzykin , Philippe Bergault , Olivier Guéant

A Markovian modulation captures the trend in the market and influences the market coefficients accordingly. The different scenarios presented by the market are modeled as the distinct states of a discrete-time Markov chain. In our paper, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-02-09 Bernardo D'Auria , José A. Salmerón

We find empirical evidence that mean-reverting jump processes are not statistically adequate to model electricity spot price spikes but independent, signed sums of such processes are statistically adequate. Further we demonstrate a change…

Applications · Statistics 2017-05-08 Jhonny Gonzalez , John Moriarty , Jan Palczewski

Constant function market makers(CFMMS) are a popular market design for decentralized exchanges(DEX). Liquidity providers(LPs) supply the CFMMs with assets to enable trades. In exchange for providing this liquidity, an LP receives a token…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Waylon Jepsen , Colin Roberts

We show that, for the purpose of pricing Swaptions, the Swap rate and the corresponding Forward rates can be considered lognormal under a single martingale measure. Swaptions can then be priced as options on a basket of lognormal assets and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Alexandre d'Aspremont

An automated market maker (AMM) is a state machine that manages pools of assets, allowing parties to buy and sell those assets according to a fixed mathematical formula. AMMs are typically implemented as smart contracts on blockchains, and…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-29 Kenan Wood , Maurice Herlihy , Hammurabi Mendes , Jonad Pulaj

Electricity market operators worldwide use mixed-integer linear programming to solve the allocation problem in wholesale electricity markets. Prices are typically determined based on the duals of relaxed versions of this optimization…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Mete Şeref Ahunbay , Martin Bichler , Teodora Dobos , Johannes Knörr