Related papers: Time-Series Foundation AI Model for Value-at-Risk …

Time series foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a popular paradigm for zero-shot multi-domain forecasting. These models are trained on numerous diverse datasets and claim to be effective forecasters across multiple different time series…

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization…

This report presents a comprehensive evaluation of three Value-at-Risk (VaR) modeling approaches: Historical Simulation (HS), GARCH with Normal approximation (GARCH-N), and GARCH with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), using both…

We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…

A method for quantile-based, semi-parametric historical simulation estimation of multiple step ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) models is developed. It uses the quantile loss function, analogous to how the…

Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-$t$ residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach…

Time series foundation models excel in zero-shot forecasting, handling diverse tasks without explicit training. However, the advancement of these models has been hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmarks. To address this gap, we…

GAS models have been recently proposed in time-series econometrics as valuable tools for signal extraction and prediction. This paper details how financial risk managers can use GAS models for Value-at-Risk (VaR) prediction using the novel…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are widely used in the financial sector to measure the market risk and manage the extreme market movement. The recent link between the quantile score function and the Asymmetric Laplace…

A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected…

While recent advancements in foundation models have significantly impacted machine learning, rigorous tests on the performance of time series foundation models (TSFMs) remain largely underexplored. This paper presents an empirical study…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an institutional measure of risk favored by financial regulators. VaR may be interpreted as a quantile of future portfolio values conditional on the information available, where the most common quantile used is 95%.…

Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…

In an environment of increasingly volatile financial markets, the accurate estimation of risk remains a major challenge. Traditional econometric models, such as GARCH and its variants, are based on assumptions that are often too rigid to…

Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric…

Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…

We study the prediction of Value at Risk (VaR) for cryptocurrencies. In contrast to classic assets, returns of cryptocurrencies are often highly volatile and characterized by large fluctuations around single events. Analyzing a…

We propose a non-asymptotic convergence analysis of a two-step approach to learn a conditional value-at-risk (VaR) and a conditional expected shortfall (ES) using Rademacher bounds, in a non-parametric setup allowing for heavy-tails on the…

We account for time-varying parameters in the conditional expectile-based value at risk (EVaR) model. The EVaR downside risk is more sensitive to the magnitude of portfolio losses compared to the quantile-based value at risk (QVaR). Rather…

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a widely used instrument in financial risk management. The question of estimating the VaR of loss return distributions at extreme levels is an important question in financial applications, both from operational…