Related papers: On the predictability of springtime ozone depletio…
The level of quasi-stationary planetary wave (QSW) activity in the Antarctic winter stratosphere provides insights into the likely behavior of the ozone hole in the following spring months. Observation of an anomalously large amplitude of…
Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal…
Understanding and forecasting precipitation events in the Arctic maritime environments, such as Bear Island and Ny-{\AA}lesund, is crucial for assessing climate risk and developing early warning systems in vulnerable marine regions. This…
Periods of low dissolved oxygen concentration -- hypoxia and anoxia -- threaten the health of aquatic ecosystems and the services they provide.Hypoxia is strongly influenced by temperature, but the different sensitivities and response…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an…
Atmospheric ozone is a crucial absorber of solar radiation and an important greenhouse gas. However, most climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) still lack an interactive representation of ozone due…
Ensembles of regional-global climate model combinations show substantial spread in projected wind and solar resources. Using 31 RCM-GCM pairs, we quantify the sources of this spread with a spatially and seasonally resolved variance…
Antarctic sea ice has undergone unprecedented changes in recent years, raising questions about how this key geophysical system is responding to climate change. Decades of slow expansion were replaced by a precipitous decline in 2014-2017, a…
The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…
Prediction of climate tipping is challenging due to the lack of recent observation of actual climate tipping. Despite many previous efforts to accurately predict the existence and timing of climate tippings under specific climate scenarios,…
Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…
Agricultural food production and natural ecological systems depend on a range of seasonal climate indicators that describe seasonal patterns in climatological conditions. This paper proposes a probabilistic forecasting framework for…
This paper represents the first effort to quantify uncertainty in carbon intensity forecasting for datacenter decarbonization. We identify and analyze two types of uncertainty -- temporal and spatial -- and discuss their system…
Sites for next-generation telescopes are chosen decades before the first light of a telescope. Site selection is usually based on recent measurements over a period that is too short to account for long-term changes in observing conditions…
Climate change is progressing asynchronously between the Arctic and Antarctic, with important implications for global climate dynamics. While the Arctic has experienced rapid warming and pronounced amplification, the Antarctic has exhibited…
Planetary and synoptic scale wave-packets represent one important component of the atmospheric large-scale circulation. These dissipative structures are able to rapidly transport eddy kinetic energy, generated locally (e.g. by baroclinic…
Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of ambient ozone levels and temperatures which, in turn, may impact public health. Much research has focused on the effect of short-term ozone exposures on mortality and morbidity while…
Some of the natural variability in climate is understood to come from changes in the Sun. A key route whereby the Sun may influence surface climate is initiated in the tropical stratosphere by the absorption of solar ultraviolet (UV)…
The spatial dependence of total column ozone varies strongly with latitude, so that homogeneous models (invariant to all rotations) are clearly unsuitable. However, an assumption of axial symmetry, which means that the process model is…
The glaciological record of atmospheric composition suggests O2 has declined over the last 800000 years at an average rate of 0.3 x 1012 mol (Tmol) O2 yr-1. Because the geological carbon cycle regulates long term atmospheric oxygen…