Related papers: Leveraging spurious Omori-Utsu relation in the nea…
We develop an efficient numerical scheme to solve accurately the set of nonlinear integral equations derived previously in (Saichev and Sornette, 2007), which describes the distribution of inter-event times in the framework of a general…
Understanding the controlling mechanisms underlying injection-induced seismicity is important for optimizing reservoir productivity and addressing seismicity-related concerns related to hydraulic stimulation in Enhanced Geothermal Systems.…
We estimate the rate of aftershocks triggered by a heterogeneous stress change, using the rate-and-state model of Dieterich [1994].We show that an exponential stress distribution Pt(au) ~exp(-tautau_0) gives an Omori law decay of…
One hundred years ago, Fusakichi Omori died. Our paper is dedicated to his memory. Omori made an outstanding contribution to the physics of earthquakes. In 1894 he formulated the law of aftershock evolution. Omori's Law states that after…
Earthquakes are indeed triggered by fault dislocations, but whether this process alone can produce the actual earthquake energy released by the mainshock has long been questioned. Therefore, exploring the true source of energy that causes…
The successful prediction of earthquakes is one of the holy grails in Earth Sciences. Traditional predictions use statistical information on recurrence intervals, but those predictions are not accurate enough. In a recent paper, a machine…
We present a method for analysing mobile phone call detail records to identify individuals whom we believe to be have been internally displaced as a result of a sudden-onset disaster. We model each anonymous individual's movements…
We develop a statistical method for identifying induced seismicity from large datasets and apply the method to decades of wastewater disposal and seismicity data in California and Oklahoma. The method is robust against a variety of…
Recent observation studies have revealed that earthquakes are classified into several different categories. Each category might be characterized by the unique statistical feature in the time series, but the present understanding is still…
Waiting-time statistics are generated from the Olami-Feder-Christensen model and shown to mimic some aspects of real seismicity. Preliminary analysis of the model data implies a recently proposed universal scaling law for the distribution…
The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…
A conjecture on imminent earthquake prediction is presented. Drastic geological deformations of crustal rock strata taking place immediately (hours/days) before an earthquake may cause fast air or gas emission/absorption vertically in…
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…
In this work the distribution of inter-occurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the…
For historical buildings and monuments, i.e. when considering time intervals of about a million year (we do not want to loose cultural heritage), the applicability of standard estimates of seismic hazard is really questionable. A viable…
We present a new technique in order to quantify the dynamics of spatially extended systems. Using a test on the existence of unstable periodic orbits, we identify intermediate spatial scales, wherein the dynamics is characterized by maximum…
Earthquake occurrence is notoriously difficult to predict. While some aspects of their spatiotemporal statistics can be relatively well captured by point-process models, very little is known regarding the magnitude of future events, and it…
A fundamental mystery in earthquake physics is ``how can an earthquake be triggered by distant seismic sources?'' Here, we use discrete element method simulations of a granular layer, during stick-slip, that is subject to transient…
Investment in measuring a process more completely or accurately is only useful if these improvements can be utilised during modelling and inference. We consider how improvements to data quality over time can be incorporated when selecting a…
This work proposes an evidence-retrieval mechanism for uncertainty-aware decision-making that replaces a single global cutoff with an evidence-conditioned, instance-adaptive criterion. For each test instance, proximal exemplars are…