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Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
We propose two methods to calibrate the parameters of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model based on expectation maximization (EM) while accounting for temporal variation of catalog completeness. The first method allows for…
We analyze the memory in volatility by studying volatility return intervals, defined as the time between two consecutive fluctuations larger than a given threshold, in time periods following stock market crashes. Such an aftercrash period…
The statistical properties of avalanches in a dissipative particulate system under slow shear are investigated using molecular dynamics simulations. It is found that the magnitude-frequency distribution obeys the Gutenberg-Richter law only…
We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…
We examine the hypothesis proposed in recent years by several authors that the crust is in a self-organized critical (SOC) state by exploring how the SOC concept can help in understanding the observed earthquake clustering on relatively…
We propose a new approach for generating synthetic earthquake catalogues based on the physics of soft glasses. The continuum approach produces yield-stress materials based on Lattice-Boltzmann simulations. We show that, if the material is…
Earthquakes and solar flares are phenomena involving huge and rapid releases of energy characterized by complex temporal occurrence. By analysing available experimental catalogs, we show that the stochastic processes underlying these…
We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…
For earthquake-resistant design, engineering seismologists employ time-history analysis for nonlinear simulations. The nonstationary stochastic method previously developed by Pousse et al. (2006) has been updated. This method has the…
Unfortunately, working scientists sometimes reflexively continue to use "buzz phrases" grounded in once prevalent paradigms that have been subsequently refuted. This can impede both earthquake research and hazard mitigation. Well-worn…
We present a machine learning approach for the aftershock forecasting of Japanese earthquake catalogue from 2015 to 2019. Our method takes as sole input the ground surface deformation as measured by Global Positioning System (GPS) stations…
Debris disks, which consist of dust, planetesimals, planets, and gas, offer a unique window into the mineralogical composition of their parent bodies, especially during the critical phase of terrestrial planet formation spanning 10 to a few…
Earthquakes are complex phenomena characterized by some fundamental seismic laws. However, under the framework of brittle fracture in disordered material, these universal scaling behaviors, especially for critical exponents, are still far…
The aftershock productivity law, first described by Utsu in 1970, is an exponential function of the form K=K0.exp({\alpha}M) where K is the number of aftershocks, M the mainshock magnitude, and {\alpha} the productivity parameter. The Utsu…
Predicting earthquakes is of the utmost importance, especially to those countries of high risk, and although much effort has been made, it has yet to be realised. Nevertheless, there is a paucity of statistical approaches in seismic studies…
Large continental earthquakes activate multiple faults in a complex fault system, dynamically inducing co-seismic damage around them. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake in the northern South Island of New Zealand has been reported as one…
Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…
The number of earthquakes as a function of magnitude decays as a power law. This trend is usually justified using spring-block models, where slips with the appropriate global statistics have been numerically observed. However, prominent…
The observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be…