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Posterior distributions on parameters computed from experimental data using Bayesian techniques are only as accurate as the models used to construct them. In many applications these models are incomplete, which both reduces the prospects of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-06-23 Christopher J. Moore , Jonathan R. Gair

Datasets are rarely a realistic approximation of the target population. Say, prevalence is misrepresented, image quality is above clinical standards, etc. This mismatch is known as sampling bias. Sampling biases are a major hindrance for…

The recent detection of nanohertz stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds (SGWBs) by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) promises unique insights into astrophysical and cosmological origins. However, traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-06-12 Junrong Lai , Changhong Li

Searching for gravitational waves in pulsar timing array data is computationally intensive. The data is unevenly sampled, and the noise is heteroscedastic, necessitating the use of a time-domain likelihood function with attendant expensive…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-06-22 Bence Bécsy , Neil J. Cornish , Matthew C. Digman

In this paper we show that the classical problem of frequency estimation can be formulated and solved efficiently in an empirical Bayesian framework by assigning a uniform a priori probability distribution to the unknown frequency. We…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-27 Giorgio Picci , Bin Zhu

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

We present a robust approach to incorporating models for the time-variable broadening of the pulse profile due to scattering in the ionized interstellar medium into profile-domain pulsar timing analysis. We use this approach to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-04-12 L. Lentati , M. Kerr , S. Dai , R. M. Shannon , G. Hobbs , S. Oslowski

This is an introduction to Bayesian inference with a focus on hierarchical models and hyper-parameters. We write primarily for an audience of Bayesian novices, but we hope to provide useful insights for seasoned veterans as well. Examples…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-05-26 Eric Thrane , Colm Talbot

A new Bayesian software package for the analysis of pulsar timing data is presented in the form of TempoNest which allows for the robust determination of the non-linear pulsar timing solution simultaneously with a range of additional…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2013-12-04 Lindley Lentati , Paul Alexander , Michael P. Hobson , Farhan Feroz , Rutger van Haasteren , Kejia Lee , Ryan M. Shannon

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool in gravitational-wave astronomy. It enables us to deduce the properties of merging compact-object binaries and to determine how these mergers are distributed as a population according to mass, spin, and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-06-15 Isobel M. Romero-Shaw , Eric Thrane , Paul D. Lasky

We describe a Bayesian formalism for analyzing individual gravitational-wave events in light of the rest of an observed population. This analysis reveals how the idea of a "population-informed prior" arises naturally from a suitable…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-11-11 Christopher J. Moore , Davide Gerosa

The detection of gravitational waves by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration has ushered in a new era of observational astronomy, emphasizing the need for rapid and detailed parameter estimation and population-level analyses. Traditional…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-07-22 Bo Liang , He Wang

A gravitational-wave background can be detected in pulsar-timing-array data as Hellings--Downs correlations among the timing residuals measured for different pulsars. The optimal statistic implements this concept as a classical…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2024-02-14 Michele Vallisneri , Patrick M. Meyers , Katerina Chatziioannou , Alvin J. K. Chua

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-15 Will J. Percival , Oliver Friedrich , Elena Sellentin , Alan Heavens

Sparse deep neural networks have proven to be efficient for predictive model building in large-scale studies. Although several works have studied theoretical and numerical properties of sparse neural architectures, they have primarily…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-18 Sanket Jantre , Shrijita Bhattacharya , Tapabrata Maiti

Gravitational wave background results from the superposition of gravitational waves generated from all sources across the Universe. Previous efforts on detecting such a background with pulsar timing arrays assume it is an isotropic Gaussian…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-23 Xihao Deng

Once upon a time, predictions for the accuracy of inference on gravitational-wave signals relied on computationally inexpensive but often inaccurate techniques. Recently, the approach has shifted to actual inference on noisy signals with…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-12-09 Carl-Johan Haster , Ilya Mandel , Will M. Farr

This paper presents the use of spike-and-slab (SS) priors for discovering governing differential equations of motion of nonlinear structural dynamic systems. The problem of discovering governing equations is cast as that of selecting…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-02 Rajdip Nayek , Ramon Fuentes , Keith Worden , Elizabeth J. Cross

There has been increased research interest in the subfield of sparse Bayesian factor analysis with shrinkage priors, which achieve additional sparsity beyond the natural parsimonity of factor models. In this spirit, we estimate the number…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-18 Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter , Darjus Hosszejni , Hedibert Freitas Lopes

Pulsar timing now has a rich history in placing limits on the stochastic background of gravitational waves, and we plan soon to reach the sensitivity where we can detect, not just place limits on, the stochastic background. However, the…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2015-06-03 Andrea N. Lommen