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The modeling of intrinsic noise in pulsar timing residual data is of crucial importance for Gravitational Wave (GW) detection and pulsar timing (astro)physics in general. The noise budget in pulsars is a collection of several well studied…
Pulsar timing arrays have reported a compelling evidence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. However, the origin of the signal remains undetermined, largely because its spectrum is bluer for an astrophysical source and…
Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for…
This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling,…
The impracticality of posterior sampling has prevented the widespread adoption of spike-and-slab priors in high-dimensional applications. To alleviate the computational burden, optimization strategies have been proposed that quickly find…
The stochastic gravitational wave background for pulsar timing arrays is often modeled by a Gaussian ensemble which is isotropic and unpolarized. However, the Universe has a discrete set of polarized gravitational wave sources at specific…
We describe several new techniques which accelerate Bayesian searches for continuous gravitational-wave emission from supermassive black-hole binaries using pulsar timing arrays. These techniques mitigate the problematic increase of…
A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…
Spike-and-slab priors are popular Bayesian solutions for high-dimensional linear regression problems. Previous theoretical studies on spike-and-slab methods focus on specific prior formulations and use prior-dependent conditions and…
Propagation effects are one of the main sources of noise in high-precision pulsar timing. For pulsars below an ecliptic latitude of $5^\circ$, the ionised plasma in the solar wind can introduce dispersive delays of order 100 microseconds…
Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTA) provide a powerful framework to measure low-frequency gravitational waves, but accuracy and robustness of the results are challenged by complex noise processes that must be accurately modeled. Standard PTA…
Pulsar timing array projects measure the pulse arrival times of millisecond pulsars for the primary purpose of detecting nanohertz-frequency gravitational waves. The measurements include contributions from a number of astrophysical and…
An important task in building regression models is to decide which regressors should be included in the final model. In a Bayesian approach, variable selection can be performed using mixture priors with a spike and a slab component for the…
Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…
Pulsar timing uses the highly stable pulsar spin period to investigate many astrophysical topics. In particular, pulsar timing arrays make use of a set of extremely well-timed pulsars and their time correlations as a challenging detector of…
The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families and are particularly simple starting…
We consider Bayesian logistic regression models with group-structured covariates. In high-dimensional settings, it is often assumed that only small portion of groups are significant, thus consistent group selection is of significant…
Pulsar timing, i.e. the analysis of the arrival times of pulses from a pulsar, is a powerful tool in modern astrophysics. It allows us to measure the time delays of an electromagnetic signal caused by a number of physical processes as the…
Approximations are commonly employed in realistic applications of scientific Bayesian inference, often due to convenience if not necessity. In the field of gravitational-wave (GW) data analysis, fast-to-evaluate but approximate waveform…
Bayesian methods are becoming more widely used in asteroseismic analysis. In particular, they are being used to determine oscillation frequencies, which are also commonly found by Fourier analysis. It is important to establish whether the…