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In response to the declining population and aging infrastructure in Japan, local governments are implementing compact city policies such as the location normalization plan. To optimize the reorganization of urban public infrastructure, it…

In many countries life expectancy gains have been substantially higher than predicted by even recent forecasts. This is primarily due to increasing rates of improvement in old-age mortality not captured by existing models. In this paper we…

Brain age prediction models have succeeded in predicting clinical outcomes in neurodegenerative diseases, but can struggle with tasks involving faster progressing diseases and low quality data. To enhance their performance, we employ a…

The Gini coefficient of the life table is a concentration index that provides information on lifespan variation. Originally proposed by economists to measure income and wealth inequalities, it has been widely used in population studies to…

There are many time series in the literature with high dimension yet limited sample sizes, such as macroeconomic variables, and it is almost impossible to obtain efficient estimation and accurate prediction by using the corresponding…

We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…

We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death…

Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…

Distribution-free prediction sets play a pivotal role in uncertainty quantification for complex statistical models. Their validity hinges on reliable calibration data, which may not be readily available as real-world environments often…

This paper proposes a new extension of the linear failure rate (LFR) model to better capture real-world lifetime data. The model incorporates an additional shape parameter to increase flexibility. It helps model the minimum survival time…

A family of non-equilibrium statistical operators is introduced which differ by the system age distribution over which the quasi-equilibrium (relevant) distribution is averaged. To describe the nonequilibrium states of a system we introduce…

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively,…

Applied Difference-in-Differences studies often involve outcomes that are discrete, mixed, censored, or otherwise non-continuously distributed, while policy questions frequently concern distributional effects rather than mean effects alone.…

Assessing climate-driven mortality risk has become an emerging area of research in recent decades. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to explicitly incorporate climate-driven effects into both single- and multi-population stochastic…

This study introduces a novel generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) for mortality modelling, utilizing the mortality covariate $k_t$ as proposed by Dastranj-Kolar. Our findings indicate that the GAMM effectively addresses this…

This paper examines the optimal annuitization, investment and consumption strategies of a utility-maximizing retiree facing a stochastic time of death under a variety of institutional restrictions. We focus on the impact of aging on the…

We propose a novel extension of the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) model to forecast mortality rates by integrating randomized signatures, referred to as the HU model with randomized signatures (HUrs). Unlike truncated signatures, which grow…

This study introduces an innovative methodology for mortality forecasting, which integrates signature-based methods within the functional data framework of the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) model. This new approach, termed the Hyndman-Ullah with…

We numerically address the stability analysis of linear age-structured population models with nonlocal diffusion, which arise naturally in describing dynamics of infectious diseases. Compared to Laplace diffusion, models with nonlocal…

As populations age, the rise of multimorbidity poses a significant healthcare challenge. However, our ability to quantitatively forecast the progression of multimorbidity remains limited. Leveraging a nationwide dataset comprising…