Related papers: Forecasting Age Distribution of Deaths: Cumulative…

The aim of this paper is to study the construction of prospective mortality tables from a low number of persons subjected to risk. The presented models are the Lee-Carter and log-Poisson methods respectively. The low number of people…

Understanding and modeling mortality patterns, especially differences in mortality rates between populations, is vital for demographic analysis and public health planning. We compare three statistical models within the age-period framework…

A model describing the dynamics related to the spreading of non-lethal infectious diseases in a fixed-size population is proposed. The model consists of a non-linear delay-differential equation describing the time evolution of the increment…

The popular choice of using a $direct$ forecasting scheme implies that the individual predictions do not contain information on cross-horizon dependence. However, this dependence is needed if the forecaster has to construct, based on…

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…

Many countries have established population-based biobanks, which are being used increasingly in epidemiolgical and clinical research. These biobanks offer opportunities for large-scale studies addressing questions beyond the scope of…

The COVID-19 pandemic has taken the world by storm with its high infection rate. Investigating its geographical disparities has paramount interest in order to gauge its relationships with political decisions, economic indicators, or mental…

This paper analyzes mortality cohort effect of birth year and develops an approach to identify and measure cohort effects in mortality data set. The approach is based on differential geometry and leads to an explicit result which can…

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the…

The spatial structure of an evolving population affects which mutations become fixed. Some structures amplify selection, increasing the likelihood that beneficial mutations become fixed while deleterious mutations do not. Other structures…

Cardiovascular diseases are major causes of mortality globally. They often co-occur and are interrelated, leading to partial-order relationships among their onset times. However, these onset times are subject to informative censoring due to…

The missing data problem pervasively exists in statistical applications. Even as simple as the count data in mortality projections, it may not be available for certain age-and-year groups due to the budget limitations or difficulties in…

In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects…

Dead time effects have been considered a major limitation for fast data acquisition in various time-correlated single photon counting applications, since a commonly adopted approach for dead time mitigation is to operate in the low-flux…

To better understand mortality change with age capturing the variability in individuals' rates of aging, we performed comprehensive analysis of statistical properties of a cumulative index of age-associated disorders (deficits), called a…

Survival analysis is an integral part of the statistical toolbox. However, while most domains of classical statistics have embraced deep learning, survival analysis only recently gained some minor attention from the deep learning community.…

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic mortality modelling by using the Conway--Maxwell--Poisson (CMP) distribution to model death counts. Unlike standard Poisson or negative binomial distributions, the CMP is a more adaptable…

In this paper we propose an extension of the notion of deviation-based aggregation function tailored to aggregate multidimensional data. Our objective is both to improve the results obtained by other methods that try to select the best…

This paper develops the first comprehensive theoretical and empirical framework for analyzing AI-driven spatial distribution dynamics in metropolitan areas undergoing demographic transition. We extend New Economic Geography by formalizing…

Several independent observations have suggested that catastrophe transition in microtubules is not a first-order process, as is usually assumed. Recent {\it in vitro} observations by Gardner et al.[ M. K. Gardner et al., Cell {\bf147}, 1092…