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A multi-arm multi-stage trial is a multi-arm trial which includes interim analyses - analysing the data at certain specified points, generally discontinuing treatments which are concluded to not work and proceeding with the remainder. It is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-14 Martin Law

Existing multi-outcome designs focus almost entirely on evaluating whether all outcomes show evidence of efficacy or whether at least one outcome shows evidence of efficacy. While a small number of authors have provided multi-outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-21 Martin Law , Michael J. Grayling , Adrian P. Mander

Group sequential designs (GSDs) are well established and the most commonly used adaptive design in confirmatory clinical trials with interim analyses. However, they remain underutilised, and their implementation involves unique theoretical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Zhangyi He , Suzie Cro , Laurent Billot

Early-phase clinical trials face the challenge of selecting optimal drug doses that balance safety and efficacy due to uncertain dose-response relationships and varied participant characteristics. Traditional randomized dose allocation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-13 Rohit Kanrar , Chunlin Li , Zara Ghodsi , Margaret Gamalo

Posterior sampling for high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems is a common challenge in real-world applications. Randomized Maximum Likelihood (RML) is an optimization based methodology that gives samples from an approximation to the…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-05 Valentin Breaz , Richard Wilkinson

Multiobjective optimization plays an increasingly important role in modern applications, where several objectives are often of equal importance. The task in multiobjective optimization and multiobjective optimal control is therefore to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-06-24 Stefan Banholzer , Bennet Gebken , Michael Dellnitz , Sebastian Peitz , Stefan Volkwein

Many phase II clinical trials have used survival outcomes as the primary endpoints in recent decades. Suppose the radiotherapy is evaluated in a phase II trial using survival outcomes. In that case, the competing risk issue often arises…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-15 Jina Park , Wenjing Hu , Ick Hoon Jin , Hao Liu , Yong Zang

Multi-stage stochastic optimization lies at the core of decision-making under uncertainty. As the analytical solution is available only in exceptional cases, dynamic optimization aims to efficiently find approximations but often neglects…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Anna Timonina-Farkas

Uncertainty in state or model parameters is common in robotics and typically handled by acquiring system measurements that yield information about the uncertain quantities of interest. Inputs to a nonlinear dynamical system yield outcomes…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-08-04 Parker Ewen , Gitesh Gunjal , Joey Wilson , Jinsun Liu , Challen Enninful Adu , Ram Vasudevan

Immunotherapy has transformed cancer treatment, yet its delayed therapeutic effects often lead to non-proportional hazards, rendering many conventional phase II designs underpowered and prone to type I error inflation. To address this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Zhongheng Cai , Haitao Pan

Recent developments in artificial intelligence and automation support a new drug design paradigm: autonomous drug design. Under this paradigm, generative models can provide suggestions on thousands of molecules with specific properties, and…

Epidemiological models can not only be used to forecast the course of a pandemic like COVID-19, but also to propose and design non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school and work closing. In general, the design of optimal policies…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-06 Jan-Hendrik Niemann , Samuel Uram , Sarah Wolf , Nataša Djurdjevac Conrad , Martin Weiser

This paper studies a two-stage model of experimentation, where the researcher first samples representative units from an eligible pool, then assigns each sampled unit to treatment or control. To implement balanced sampling and assignment,…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-22 Max Cytrynbaum

When a novel treatment has successfully passed phase I, different options to design subsequent phase II trials are available. One approach is a single-arm trial, comparing the response rate in the intervention group against a fixed…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-03 Johannes Krisam , Dorothea Weber , Richard F. Schlenk , Meinhard Kieser

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular, sample-efficient technique for expensive, black-box optimization. One such problem arising in manufacturing is that of maximizing the reliability, or equivalently minimizing the probability of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Jack M. Buckingham , Ivo Couckuyt , Juergen Branke

We present a novel stochastic approach to binary optimization for optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian inverse problems governed by mathematical models such as partial differential equations. The OED utility function, namely, the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-06-28 Ahmed Attia , Sven Leyffer , Todd Munson

Debiased recommendation with a randomized dataset has shown very promising results in mitigating the system-induced biases. However, it still lacks more theoretical insights or an ideal optimization objective function compared with the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-03-22 Dugang Liu , Pengxiang Cheng , Zinan Lin , Xiaolian Zhang , Zhenhua Dong , Rui Zhang , Xiuqiang He , Weike Pan , Zhong Ming

Recent advances in computationally efficient non-myopic Bayesian optimization (BO) improve query efficiency over traditional myopic methods like expected improvement while only modestly increasing computational cost. These advances have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-07 Yunxiang Zhang , Xiangyu Zhang , Peter I. Frazier

Radiation therapy treatment planning can be viewed as an iterative hyperparameter tuning process to balance conflicting clinical goals. In this work, we investigated the performance of modern Bayesian Optimization (BO) methods on automated…

Medical Physics · Physics 2023-02-15 Qingying Wang , Ruoxi Wang , Jiacheng Liu , Fan Jiang , Haizhen Yue , Yi Du , Hao Wu

Despite the wide adoption of Large Language Models (LLM)s, clinical decision support systems face a critical challenge: achieving high predictive accuracy while generating explanations aligned with the predictions. Current approaches suffer…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-07 H M Quamran Hasan , Housam Khalifa Bashier , Jiayi Dai , Mi-Young Kim , Randy Goebel