Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular, sample-efficient technique for expensive, black-box optimization. One such problem arising in manufacturing is that of maximizing the reliability, or equivalently minimizing the probability of a failure, of a design which is subject to random perturbations - a problem that can involve extremely rare failures (Pfail=10−6−10−8). In this work, we propose two BO methods based on Thompson sampling and knowledge gradient, the latter approximating the one-step Bayes-optimal policy for minimizing the logarithm of the failure probability. Both methods incorporate importance sampling to target extremely small failure probabilities. Empirical results show the proposed methods outperform existing methods in both extreme and non-extreme regimes.
@article{arxiv.2602.02432,
title = {Maximizing Reliability with Bayesian Optimization},
author = {Jack M. Buckingham and Ivo Couckuyt and Juergen Branke},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.02432},
year = {2026}
}