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Predicting the response of a system to perturbations is a key challenge in mathematical and natural sciences. Under suitable conditions on the nature of the system, of the perturbation, and of the observables of interest, response theories…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-09-13 Valerio Lucarini , Jeroen Wouters

Numerical simulations of turbulent stratified convection are used to study models with approximately the same convective flux, but different radiative fluxes. As the radiative flux is decreased, for constant convective flux: the entropy…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Brandenburg , K. L. Chan , A. Nordlund , R. F. Stein

The fluctuation dissipation theorem (FDT) is the basis for a microscopic description of the interaction between electromagnetic radiation and matter.By assuming the electromagnetic radiation in thermal equilibrium and the interaction in the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-05-22 Lino Reggiani , Eleonora Alfinito

We present a physically inspired generalization of equilibrium response formulae, the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, to Markov jump processes possibly describing interacting particle systems out-of-equilibrium. Here, the time-dependent…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-05-05 Christian Maes , Bram Wynants

In this paper we re-examine the traditional problem of connecting the internal fluctuations of a system to its response to external forcings and extend the classical theory in order to be able to encompass also nonlinear processes. With…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-04 Valerio Lucarini , Matteo Colangeli

We present a model for variations in atmospheric temperature from time scales of one day to one million years based on a stochastic diffusion (random walk) model of the turbulent transport of heat energy vertically in a coupled…

ao-sci · Physics 2008-02-03 Jon D. Pelletier

The presence of convective and turbulent motions, and the evolution of magnetic fields give rise to existence of temperature fluctuations in stellar atmospheres, active galactic nuclei and other cosmic objects. We observe the time and…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-04 N. A. Silant'ev , G. A. Alekseeva , V. V. Novikov

Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved sub-grid scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-02-19 K. Strommen , P. A. G. Watson , T. N. Palmer

Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-01-24 Beatrice Ellerhoff , Kira Rehfeld

We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-22 Vera Melinda Galfi , Valerio Lucarini , Jeroen Wouters

We propose a new mechanism to generate density perturbations in inflationary models. Spatial fluctuations in the decay rate of the inflaton field to ordinary matter lead to fluctuations in the reheating temperature. We argue that in most…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-07 Gia Dvali , Andrei Gruzinov , Matias Zaldarriaga

The steady and transient response of "dynamically" dry and moist atmospheres to uniform sea-surface temperature (SST) is studied. Specifically, the latent heat (Lv) of water vapor is varied, so that for small Lv, water substance is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-02-16 D. L. Suhas , Jai Sukhatme , Nili Harnik

Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-04-22 Tristan H. Abbott , Timothy W. Cronin , Tom Beucler

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an essential climate variable that can be measured via ground truth, remote sensing, or hybrid model methodologies. Here, we celebrate SST surveillance progress via the application of a few relevant…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-06-19 Albert Larson , Ali Shafqat Akanda

We review recent results on the appearance of long-term persistence in climatic records and their relevance for the evaluation of global climate models and rare events.The persistence can be characterized, for example, by the correlation…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-11-07 Armin Bunde , Jan Eichner , Rathinaswamy Govindan , Shlomo Havlin , Eva Koscielny-Bunde , Diego Rybski , Dmitry Vjushin

The long-term relationship between radiative forcing and surface temperature is imperative for predicting the impacts of climate change. This study employs multicointegration to characterize this relationship and uses Transformed and…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-17 Justin Sun

Convective and radiative cooling are the two principle mechanisms by which the Earth's surface transfers heat into the atmosphere and that shape surface temperature. However, this partitioning is not sufficiently constrained by energy and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-12-07 Chirag Dhara , Maik Renner , Axel Kleidon

Water availability is a major environmental driver affecting riparian and wetland vegetation. The interaction between water table fluctuations and vegetation in a stochastic environment contributes to the complexity of the dynamics of these…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-05-14 Stefania Scarsoglio , Paolo D'Odorico , Francesco Laio , Luca Ridolfi

The Pattern Effect describes the dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiation anomalies on changes in the pattern of sea surface temperatures. The emerging consensus in the field explains the impact of Pacific warm pool temperature on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-26 Cristian Proistosescu , Pappu Paul , Nicholas J. Lutsko , Andrew I. L. Williams , Malte F. Stuecker

Small systems in a thermodynamic medium --- like colloids in a suspension or the molecular machinery in living cells --- are strongly affected by the thermal fluctuations of their environment. Physicists model such systems by means of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-10-16 Bernhard Altaner