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Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains, yet remain susceptible to hallucinations. While prior works have proposed confidence representation methods for hallucination detection, most of these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Elyes Hajji , Aymen Bouguerra , Fabio Arnez

Uncertainty quantification enables users to assess the reliability of responses generated by large language models (LLMs). We present a novel Question Rephrasing technique to evaluate the input uncertainty of LLMs, which refers to the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Zizhang Chen , Pengyu Hong , Sandeep Madireddy

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for factual question-answering, it becomes more important for LLMs to have the capability to communicate the likelihood that their answer is correct. For these verbalized expressions of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Sophia Hager , David Mueller , Kevin Duh , Nicholas Andrews

Uncertainty estimation is a necessary component when implementing AI in high-risk settings, such as autonomous cars, medicine, or insurances. Large Language Models (LLMs) have seen a surge in popularity in recent years, but they are subject…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Gabriel Y. Arteaga , Thomas B. Schön , Nicolas Pielawski

Large Language Models are known to capture real-world knowledge, allowing them to excel in many downstream tasks. Despite recent advances, these models are still prone to what are commonly known as hallucinations, causing them to emit…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Roi Cohen , Omri Fahn , Gerard de Melo

Mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for their reliable deployment. Existing methods typically fine-tune LLMs to abstain from answering questions beyond their knowledge scope. However, these methods often…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Hao An , Yang Xu

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely employed in programming language analysis to enhance human productivity. Yet, their reliability can be compromised by various code distribution shifts, leading to inconsistent outputs. While…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Yufei Li , Simin Chen , Yanghong Guo , Wei Yang , Yue Dong , Cong Liu

Reliable Large Language Models (LLMs) should abstain when confidence is insufficient. However, prior studies often treat refusal as a generic "I don't know'', failing to distinguish input-level ambiguity (data uncertainty) from capability…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Jingyi Ren , Ante Wang , Yunghwei Lai , Xiaolong Wang , Linlu Gong , Weitao Li , Weizhi Ma , Yang Liu

The advent of large language models (LLMs) has dramatically advanced the state-of-the-art in numerous natural language generation tasks. For LLMs to be applied reliably, it is essential to have an accurate measure of their confidence.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Zhen Lin , Shubhendu Trivedi , Jimeng Sun

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Azza Jenane , Nassim Walha , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive generative capabilities across diverse tasks but remain susceptible to hallucinations, confidently generated yet factually incorrect outputs. We introduce a reference-free,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Keshav Kumar

Despite the massive advancements in large language models (LLMs), they still suffer from producing plausible but incorrect responses. To improve the reliability of LLMs, recent research has focused on uncertainty quantification to predict…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Yongjin Yang , Haneul Yoo , Hwaran Lee

Uncertainty estimation (UE) of generative large language models (LLMs) is crucial for evaluating the reliability of generated sequences. A significant subset of UE methods utilize token probabilities to assess uncertainty, aggregating…

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainties by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-17 Sujay Thakur , Cooper Lorsung , Yaniv Yacoby , Finale Doshi-Velez , Weiwei Pan

Machine Learning has invariantly found its way into various Credit Risk applications. Due to the intrinsic nature of Credit Risk, quantifying the uncertainty of the predicted risk metrics is essential, and applying uncertainty-aware deep…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-12 Ashish Dhiman

The ability to replicate predictions by machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) models and results in scientific workflows that incorporate such ML/AI predictions is driven by numerous factors. An uncertainty-aware metric that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-28 Line Pouchard , Kristofer G. Reyes , Francis J. Alexander , Byung-Jun Yoon

Despite warnings that LLMs can make mistakes, users often develop inappropriate trust and accept incorrect answers without critical evaluation. Uncertainty quantification (UQ), displaying LLMs' confidence, has emerged as a promising…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Mauricio Villavicencio , Sitong Pan , Qianwen Wang

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account…

Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Jiaxin Zhang , Prafulla Kumar Choubey , Kung-Hsiang Huang , Caiming Xiong , Chien-Sheng Wu

Hallucination, the generation of factually incorrect information, remains a significant challenge for large language models (LLMs), especially in open-domain long-form generation. Existing approaches for detecting hallucination in long-form…