Related papers: Early warnings are too late when parameters change…
We consider the effect on tipping from an additive periodic forcing in a canonical model with a saddle node bifurcation and a slowly varying bifurcation parameter. Here tipping refers to the dramatic change in dynamical behavior…
We discuss tipping phenomena (critical transitions) in nonautonomous systems using an example of a bistable ecosystem model with environmental changes represented by time-varying parameters [Scheffer et al., Ecosystems, 11 (2008), pp.…
A large variety of complex systems in ecology, climate science, biomedicine and engineering have been observed to exhibit tipping points, where the internal dynamical state of the system abruptly changes. For example, such critical…
Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased variance and lag-one autocorrelation prior to bifurcation points.…
Critical transitions, ubiquitous in nature and technology, necessitate anticipation to avert adverse outcomes. While many studies focus on bifurcation-induced tipping, where a control parameter change leads to destabilization, alternative…
Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining…
Cyber-physical systems (CPS) such as unmanned aerial vehicles are vulnerable to slow degradation that develops without causing immediate or obvious failures. Small sensor biases or timing irregularities can accumulate over time, gradually…
Sudden and abrupt changes can occur in a nonlinear system within many fields of science when such a system crosses a tipping point and rapid changes of the system occur in response to slow changes in an external forcing. These can occur…
Early classification algorithms help users react faster to their machine learning model's predictions. Early warning systems in hospitals, for example, let clinicians improve their patients' outcomes by accurately predicting infections.…
External and internal factors may cause a system's parameter to vary with time before it stabilizes. This drift induces a regime shift when the parameter crosses a bifurcation. Here, we study the case of an infinite dimensional system: a…
The early detection of tipping points, which describe a rapid departure from a stable state, is an important theoretical and practical challenge. Tipping points are most commonly associated with the disappearance of steady-state or periodic…
Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…
We develop an early-warning signal for bifurcations of one-dimensional random difference equations with additive bounded noise, based on the asymptotic behaviour of the stationary density near a boundary of its support. We demonstrate the…
The susceptibility of millimeter-wave (mmWave) signals to physical blockage and abrupt signal strength variations presents a challenge to reliable 5G communication. This work proposes and examines the feasibility of utilizing…
One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse due to the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in…
Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…
In this study, we investigate prediction methods for an early warning system for a large STEM undergraduate course. Recent studies have provided evidence in favour of adopting early warning systems as a means of identifying at-risk…
Climate extremes present escalating risks to agriculture intensifying the need for reliable multi-hazard early warning systems (EWS). The situation is evolving due to climate change and hence such systems should have the intelligent to…
We consider a dynamical system undergoing a saddle-node bifurcation with an explicitly time dependent parameter~$p(t)$. The combined dynamics can be considered as a dynamical systems where $p$ is a slowly evolving parameter. Here, we…
Bank crisis is challenging to define but can be manifested through bank contagion. This study presents a comprehensive framework grounded in nonlinear time series analysis to identify potential early warning signals (EWS) for impending…