Related papers: Early warnings are too late when parameters change…
The future behavioural fate of a forced nonlinear system can depend sensitively on the forcing profile as well as natural fluctuations within the system. This is especially the case for rate-induced tipping, where the forcing pushes the…
It is tested whether past abrupt climate changes support the validity of statistical early-warning signals (EWS) as predictor of future climate tipping points. EWS are expected increases in amplitude and correlation of fluctuations driven…
Complex systems exhibiting critical transitions when one of their governing parameters varies are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering applications. Despite a vast literature focusing on this topic, there are few studies dealing with the…
Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…
Anticipating tipping points in complex systems is a fundamental challenge across domains. Traditional early warning signals (EWSs) based on critical slowing down, such as increasing sample variance, are widely used, but their ability to…
Varying one of the governing parameters of a dynamical system may lead to a critical transition, where the new stable state is undesirable. In some cases, there is only a limited range of the bifurcation parameter that corresponds to that…
Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…
Paleoclimate proxy records and models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can transition abruptly between a strong and a weak state. Empirical warning signals in observational fingerprints indeed suggest a…
In an ecosystem, environmental changes as a result of natural and human processes can cause some key parameters of the system to change with time. Depending on how fast such a parameter changes, a tipping point can occur. Existing works on…
Statistical early warning signs can be used to identify an approaching bifurcation in stochastic dynamical systems and are now regularly employed in applications concerned with the identification of potential rapid, non-linear change or…
Using in a simple way the theory of non linear dynamical systems, we show that increasing climatic instabilities may be a qualitative warning sign for the occurrence of a nearby bifurcation, yielding a discontinuous and sudden climate…
Maintaining stability in feedback systems, from aircraft and autonomous robots to biological and physiological systems, relies on monitoring their behavior and continuously adjusting their inputs. Incremental damage can make such control…
Tipping is a phenomenon in multistable systems where small changes in inputs cause huge changes in outputs. When the parameter varies within a certain time scale, the rate will affect the tipping behaviors. These behaviors are undesirable…
Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on…
A variation in the environment of a system, such as the temperature, the concentration of a chemical solution or the appearance of a magnetic field, may lead to a drift in one of the parameters. If the parameter crosses a bifurcation point,…
The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and…
Successfully anticipating sudden major changes in complex systems is a practical concern. Such complex systems often form a heterogeneous network, which may show multistage transitions in which some nodes experience a regime shift earlier…
A classical scenario for tipping is that a dynamical system experiences a slow parameter drift across a fold tipping point, caused by a run-away positive feedback loop. We study what happens if one turns around after one has crossed the…
Tipping points occur in many real-world systems, at which the system shifts suddenly from one state to another. The ability to predict the occurrence of tipping points from time series data remains an outstanding challenge and a major…
Critical transitions and tipping phenomena between two meta-stable states in stochastic dynamical systems are a significant scientific issue. In this work, we expand the methodology of identifying the most probable transition pathway…