Related papers: Early warnings are too late when parameters change…

Trained models are often composed with post-hoc transforms such as temperature scaling (TS), ensembling and stochastic weight averaging (SWA) to improve performance, robustness, uncertainty estimation, etc. However, such transforms are…

We present three examples of delayed bifurcations for spike solutions of reaction-diffusion systems. The delay effect results as the system passes slowly from a stable to an unstable regime, and was previously analysed in the context of…

Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…

Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…

The increasing extreme weather events poses unprecedented challenges on power system operation because of their uncertain and sequential impacts on power systems. This paper proposes the concept of an extended steady-state security region…

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can effectively reduce fatalities, injuries, and damages caused by earthquakes. Current EEW systems are mostly based on traditional seismic and geodetic networks, and exist only in a few countries due…

We propose an approximation for the probability of tipping when the speed of parameter change and additive white noise interact to cause tipping. Our approximation is valid for small to moderate drift speeds and helps to estimate the…

Nonlinear and non-stationary processes are prevalent in various natural and physical phenomena, where system dynamics can change qualitatively due to bifurcation phenomena. Traditional machine learning methods have advanced our ability to…

We consider discrete-time one-dimensional random dynamical systems with bounded noise, which generate an associated set-valued dynamical system. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a discontinuous bifurcation of a minimal…

Driver support systems that include human states in the support process is an active research field. Many recent approaches allow, for example, to sense the driver's drowsiness or awareness of the driving situation. However, so far, this…

Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…

Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…

This paper presents an on-board advance warning system for vehicles based on a probabilistic prediction model that advises them on when to change lanes to reach a highway diverge on time. The system is based on a model that estimates the…

In numerous applications, for instance in predictive maintenance, there is a pression to predict events ahead of time with as much accuracy as possible while not delaying the decision unduly. This translates in the optimization of a…

The growing instability of both global and domestic economic environments has increased the risk of financial distress at the household level. However, traditional econometric models often rely on delayed and aggregated data, limiting their…

The percolation phase transition in complex network systems attracts much attention and has numerous applications in various research fields. Finite size effects smooth the transition and make it difficult to predict the critical point of…

Rate-induced tipping occurs when a ramp parameter changes rapidly enough to cause the system to tip between co-existing, attracting states. We show that the addition of noise to the system can cause it to tip well below the critical rate at…

Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc. produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts…

Prediction of climate tipping is challenging due to the lack of recent observation of actual climate tipping. Despite many previous efforts to accurately predict the existence and timing of climate tippings under specific climate scenarios,…

Epilepsy is a common neurological disorder characterized by abrupt seizures. Although seizures may appear random, they are often preceded by early warning signs in neural signals, notably, critical slowing down, a phenomenon in which the…