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Identifying individual mediators is a central goal of high-dimensional mediation analysis, yet pervasive dependence among mediators can invalidate standard debiased inference and lead to substantial false discovery rate (FDR) inflation. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Chen Shi , Zhao Chen , Christina Dan Wang

We present a new estimator for causal effects with panel data that builds on insights behind the widely used difference in differences and synthetic control methods. Relative to these methods we find, both theoretically and empirically,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-22 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Susan Athey , David A. Hirshberg , Guido W. Imbens , Stefan Wager

Causal inference in spatio-temporal settings is critically hindered by unmeasured confounders with complex spatio-temporal dynamics and the prevalence of multi-resolution data. While diffusion models present a promising avenue for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Xinwen Liu , Lei Qian , Song Xi Chen , Niansheng Tang

The regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental design that can be used to identify and estimate the causal effect of a treatment using observational data. In an RDD, a pre-specified rule is used for treatment assignment,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-05 Panayiota Constantinou , Aidan G. O'Keeffe

Unmeasured confounding can severely bias causal effect estimates from spatiotemporal observational data, especially when the confounders do not vary smoothly in time and space. In this work, we develop a method for addressing unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Jiaxi Wu , Alexander Franks

Establishing causality is a fundamental goal in fields like medicine and social sciences. While randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for causal inference, they are not always feasible or ethical. Observational studies can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-03 Andrew Ying

The triple-differences (TD) design is a popular identification strategy for causal effects in settings where researchers do not believe the parallel trends assumption of conventional difference-in-differences (DiD) is satisfied. TD designs…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Anton Strezhnev

In this paper we study estimation of and inference for average treatment effects in a setting with panel data. We focus on the setting where units, e.g., individuals, firms, or states, adopt the policy or treatment of interest at a…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-09-05 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

The difference-in-differences (DID) design is one of the most popular methods used in empirical economics research. However, there is almost no work examining what the DID method identifies in the presence of a misclassified treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-01 Augustine Denteh , Désiré Kédagni

Most information dynamics and statistical causal analysis frameworks rely on the common intuition that causal interactions are intrinsically pairwise -- every 'cause' variable has an associated 'effect' variable, so that a 'causal arrow'…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2019-09-06 Pedro A. M. Mediano , Fernando Rosas , Robin L. Carhart-Harris , Anil K. Seth , Adam B. Barrett

Learning about cause and effect is arguably the main goal in applied econometrics. In practice, the validity of these causal inferences is contingent on a number of critical assumptions regarding the type of data that has been collected and…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-03-03 Paul Hünermund , Elias Bareinboim

We consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in linear structural causal models (SCM) with latent confounders when we have access to a single proxy variable. Several methods (such as…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Yaroslav Kivva , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

Financial event studies, ubiquitous in finance research, typically use linear factor models with known factors to estimate abnormal returns and identify causal effects of information events. This paper demonstrates that when factor models…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-20 Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham , Tianshu Lyu

State-level policy evaluations commonly employ a difference-in-differences (DID) study design; yet within this framework, statistical model specification varies notably across studies. Motivated by applied state-level opioid policy…

We consider the problem of inference in Difference-in-Differences (DID) when there are few treated units and errors are spatially correlated. We first show that, when there is a single treated unit, some existing inference methods designed…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-26 Luis Alvarez , Bruno Ferman

We address the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data, adopting the popular Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework under the conditional parallel trends assumption. We propose a novel doubly robust…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Hui Lan , Haoge Chang , Eleanor Dillon , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Causal discovery serves a pivotal role in mitigating model uncertainty through recovering the underlying causal mechanisms among variables. In many practical domains, such as healthcare, access to the data gathered by individual entities is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Amin Abyaneh , Nino Scherrer , Patrick Schwab , Stefan Bauer , Bernhard Schölkopf , Arash Mehrjou

This study introduces a novel forecasting strategy that leverages the power of fractional differencing (FD) to capture both short- and long-term dependencies in time series data. Unlike traditional integer differencing methods, FD preserves…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Sarit Maitra , Vivek Mishra , Srashti Dwivedi , Sukanya Kundu , Goutam Kumar Kundu

In many scenarios, such as the evaluation of place-based policies, potential outcomes are not only dependent upon the unit's own treatment but also its neighbors' treatment. Despite this, "difference-in-differences" (DID) type estimators…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-30 Ruonan Xu

Matching is one of the most widely used causal inference frameworks in observational studies. However, all the existing matching-based causal inference methods are designed for either a single treatment with general treatment types (e.g.,…

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