Related papers: Credit and Voting
Examination of precinct level data in US presidential elections reveals a correlation of large precincts and increased fraction of Republican votes. The large precinct bias is analyzed with respect to voter heterogeneity and voter…
Credit scores are critical for allocating consumer debt in the United States, yet little evidence is available on their performance. We benchmark a widely used credit score against a machine learning model of consumer default and find…
This study explores the interdependent relationship between consumer credit and consumer confidence in the United States using monthly data from January 1978 to August 2024. Utilizing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the analysis…
We show that lenders face more uncertainty when assessing default risk of historically under-served groups in US credit markets and that this information disparity is a quantitatively important driver of inefficient and unequal credit…
This paper proposes a brand-new measure of energy efficiency at household level and explores how it is affected by access to credit. We calculate the energy and carbon intensity of the related sectors, which experience a substantial decline…
This study explores the relationship between voter trust and their experiences during elections by applying a rule-based data mining technique to the 2022 Survey of the Performance of American Elections (SPAE). Using the Apriori algorithm…
Can uncertainty about credit availability trigger a slowdown in real activity? This question is answered by using a novel method to identify shocks to uncertainty in access to credit. Time-variation in uncertainty about credit availability…
This paper investigates gaps in access to and the cost of housing credit by race and ethnicity using the near universe of U.S. mortgage applications. Our data contain borrower creditworthiness variables that have historically been absent…
Economic hardships significantly affect public perception and voting intentions in general elections. The primary focus of my study is to capture the degree of influence that individual economic hardships have on their voting. I utilize the…
Changes in political geography and electoral district boundaries shape representation in the United States Congress. To disentangle the effects of geography and gerrymandering, we generate a large ensemble of alternative redistricting plans…
This paper shows that black and Hispanic borrowers are 39% more likely to experience a debt collection judgment than white borrowers, even after controlling for credit scores and other relevant credit attributes. The racial gap in judgments…
Opportunities, such as access to education or family background, shape income inequality by influencing the chances of economic success. Unequal opportunities create uncertainty about whether success is merit- or luck-based. We examine how…
We investigate the distribution of partisanship in a cross-section of ten diverse States to elucidate how votes translate into seats won and other metrics. Markov chain simulations taking into account partisanship distribution agree…
Previous research has shown a relationship between voter characteristics and voter support for tax bonds. These findings, however, are difficult to interpret because of the high degree of collinearity across the measures. From 13…
We present a model for quantitatively identifying swing voters in congressional elections. This is achieved by predicting an individual voter's likelihood to vote and an individual voter's likelihood to vote for a given party, if he votes.…
We propose two opposing forces that impact the relation between electoral integrity and poverty. On the one hand, it is more costly to provide electoral integrity in states where there is more poverty due to transaction costs and…
This paper provides a comprehensive examination of the evolution of credit cards in the United States, tracing their historical development, causes, consequences, and impact on both individuals and the economy. It delves into the…
The outcome of an election depends not only on which candidate is more popular, but also on how many of their voters actually turn out to vote. Here we consider a simple model in which voters abstain from voting if they think their vote…
This paper explains why, despite a marked increase in available political information on cable television and the Internet, citizens' levels of political knowledge have, at best, remained stagnant (Delli Carpini & Keeter, 1996). Since the…
Adverse economic shocks are known to reshape voter behavior -- the demand side of politics. Much less is known about their consequences for the supply side: how such shocks affect who becomes a politician. This paper examines how job losses…