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Precinct Size Matters - The Large Precinct Bias in US Presidential Elections

Other Statistics 2014-11-03 v1

Abstract

Examination of precinct level data in US presidential elections reveals a correlation of large precincts and increased fraction of Republican votes. The large precinct bias is analyzed with respect to voter heterogeneity and voter inconvenience as precinct size increases. The analysis shows that voter inconvenience is a significant factor in election outcomes in certain states, and may significantly disadvantage Democratic candidates.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1410.8868,
  title  = {Precinct Size Matters - The Large Precinct Bias in US Presidential Elections},
  author = {Glenn Webb},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1410.8868},
  year   = {2014}
}

Comments

14 pages, 12 figures, 1 table