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We address the problem of sequential prediction with expert advice in a non-stationary environment with long-term memory guarantees in the sense of Bousquet and Warmuth [4]. We give a linear-time algorithm that improves on the best known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-25 James Robinson , Mark Herbster

Given a linearly ordered set I, every surjective map p: A --> I endows the set A with a structure of set of preferences by "replacing" the elements of I with their inverse images via p considered as "balloons" (sets endowed with an…

General Topology · Mathematics 2013-10-30 Maria Viktorovna Droganova , Valentin Vankov Iliev

We consider the classical question of predicting binary sequences and study the {\em optimal} algorithms for obtaining the best possible regret and payoff functions for this problem. The question turns out to be also equivalent to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-05-08 Alexandr Andoni , Rina Panigrahy

We consider the problem of preference based reinforcement learning (PbRL), where, unlike traditional reinforcement learning, an agent receives feedback only in terms of a 1 bit (0/1) preference over a trajectory pair instead of absolute…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Aldo Pacchiano , Aadirupa Saha , Jonathan Lee

The notion of \emph{policy regret} in online learning is a well defined? performance measure for the common scenario of adaptive adversaries, which more traditional quantities such as external regret do not take into account. We revisit the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-24 Raman Arora , Michael Dinitz , Teodor V. Marinov , Mehryar Mohri

In the consistent histories formulation of quantum theory, the probabilistic predictions and retrodictions made from observed data depend on the choice of a consistent set. We show that this freedom allows the formalism to retrodict…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2010-11-19 Adrian Kent

Performance of adaptive control policies is assessed through the regret with respect to the optimal regulator, which reflects the increase in the operating cost due to uncertainty about the dynamics parameters. However, available results in…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2020-03-24 Mohamad Kazem Shirani Faradonbeh , Ambuj Tewari , George Michailidis

A classic problem in statistics is the estimation of the expectation of random variables from samples. This gives rise to the tightly connected problems of deriving concentration inequalities and confidence sequences, that is confidence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-02 Francesco Orabona , Kwang-Sung Jun

We consider the problem of online control of systems with time-varying linear dynamics. This is a general formulation that is motivated by the use of local linearization in control of nonlinear dynamical systems. To state meaningful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-15 Paula Gradu , Elad Hazan , Edgar Minasyan

The menu-dependent nature of regret-minimization creates subtleties when it is applied to dynamic decision problems. Firstly, it is not clear whether \emph{forgone opportunities} should be included in the \emph{menu}, with respect to which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-06-19 Joseph Y. Halpern , Samantha Leung

Restless bandit problems are instances of non-stationary multi-armed bandits. These problems have been studied well from the optimization perspective, where the goal is to efficiently find a near-optimal policy when system parameters are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 Young Hun Jung , Ambuj Tewari

In this paper, we focus on a theory-practice gap for Adam and its variants (AMSgrad, AdamNC, etc.). In practice, these algorithms are used with a constant first-order moment parameter $\beta_{1}$ (typically between $0.9$ and $0.99$). In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-24 Ahmet Alacaoglu , Yura Malitsky , Panayotis Mertikopoulos , Volkan Cevher

We consider the exploration-exploitation tradeoff in linear quadratic (LQ) control problems, where the state dynamics is linear and the cost function is quadratic in states and controls. We analyze the regret of Thompson sampling (TS)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-28 Marc Abeille , Alessandro Lazaric

We present a sample path dependent measure of causal influence between two time series. The proposed measure is a random variable whose expected sum is the directed information. A realization of the proposed measure may be used to identify…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-10-15 Gabriel Schamberg , Todd P. Coleman

We say a model is continuous in utilities (resp., preferences) if small perturbations of utility functions (resp., preferences) generate small changes in the model's outputs. While similar, these two questions are different. They are only…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-03-05 Pablo Schenone

Restless bandit problems assume time-varying reward distributions of the arms, which adds flexibility to the model but makes the analysis more challenging. We study learning algorithms over the unknown reward distributions and prove a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-15 Young Hun Jung , Marc Abeille , Ambuj Tewari

We establish an equivalence between two seemingly different theories: one is the traditional axiomatisation of incomplete preferences on horse lotteries based on the mixture independence axiom; the other is the theory of desirable gambles…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-01-03 Marco Zaffalon , Enrique Miranda

We prove a new minimax theorem connecting the worst-case Bayesian regret and minimax regret under partial monitoring with no assumptions on the space of signals or decisions of the adversary. We then generalise the information-theoretic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-30 Tor Lattimore , Csaba Szepesvari

The expectation is an example of a descriptive statistic that is monotone with respect to stochastic dominance, and additive for sums of independent random variables. We provide a complete characterization of such statistics, and explore a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-08-06 Xiaosheng Mu , Luciano Pomatto , Philipp Strack , Omer Tamuz

Recurrence and ergodic properties are established for a single--server queueing system with variable intensities of arrivals and service. Convergence to stationarity is also interpreted in terms of reliability theory.

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-01 Alexander Veretennikov