Related papers: Changes in mesoscale convective system precipitati…
Mesoscale convective systems MCSs play a central role in tropical rainfall and are closely linked to extreme precipitation and large scale variability. However, a quantitative understanding of their environmental controls remains…
Understanding controls on Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) is critical for predicting rainfall extremes across scales. Spatial variability of soil moisture (SM) presents such a control, with ~200km dry patches in the Sahel observed to…
Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…
The accurate detection of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) is crucial for meteorological monitoring due to their potential to cause significant destruction through severe weather phenomena such as hail, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall.…
Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…
The effect of warming on severe convective storm potential is commonly explained in terms of changes in vertically-integrated ("bulk") environmental parameters, such as CAPE and 0--6 km shear. However, such events are known to depend on…
The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models…
Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…
Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a planetary-scale convective system characterized by large-scale envelopes of enhanced and suppressed convection that contain numerous mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). While MCSs are widely…
Precipitation and its response to forcings is an important aspect of planetary climate system. In this study, we examine the strength of precipitation in the experiments with different atmospheric masses and their response to surface…
Although most models for rainfall extremes focus on point-wise values, it is aggregated precipitation over areas up to river catchment scale that is of the most interest. To capture the joint behaviour of precipitation aggregates evaluated…
To study trends in extreme precipitation across US over the years 1951-2017, we consider 10 climate indexes that represent extreme precipitation, such as annual maximum of daily precipitation, annual maximum of consecutive 5-day average…
Tropical regions may experience periodic extreme precipitation and suffer from associated periodic deluges in a warmer climate. Recent studies conducted small-domain (around 100 km x 100 km) atmospheric model simulations and found that…
To study the diurnal evolution of the convective cloud field, we develop a precipitation cell tracking algorithm which records the merging and fragmentation of convective cells during their life cycles, and apply it on large eddy simulation…
Precipitation extremes produced by convection have been found to intensify with near-surface temperatures at a Clausius-Clapeyron rate of $6$ to $7\%$ K$^{-1}$ in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). However, these…
Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…
In a changing climate, a key role may be played by the response of convective-type cloud and precipitation to temperature changes. Yet, it is unclear if precipitation intensities will increase mainly due to modified thermodynamic forcing or…
Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…
Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…