Related papers: Changes in mesoscale convective system precipitati…
The accurate prediction of precipitation is important to allow for reliable warnings of flood or drought risk in a changing climate. However, to make trust-worthy predictions of precipitation, at a local scale, is one of the most difficult…
The Indian monsoon brings around 80% of the annual rainfall over the summer months June--September to the Indian subcontinent. The timing of the monsoon onset and the associated rainfall has a large impact on agriculture, thus impacting the…
Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent and large latent heat release. The causal relationships between these factors are often not obvious, however, and the roles…
Moist heatwaves and convective storms frequently co-occur, posing compound risks. Although historically concentrated in the tropics, these moist weather extremes are projected to intensify substantially towards the midlatitudes, with…
Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…
Global climate models (GCMs), typically run at ~100-km resolution, capture large-scale environmental conditions but cannot resolve convection and cloud processes at kilometer scales. Convection-permitting models offer higher-resolution…
Convective self-aggregation is a modelling paradigm for thunderstorm organisation over a constant-temperature tropical sea surface. This setup can give rise to cloud clusters over timescales of weeks. In reality, sea surface temperatures do…
Extreme near-surface moist heat and severe convective storms are among the leading causes of weather-related damages worldwide. Here, we show that episodes of extreme moist heat and severe convection frequently co-occur across midlatitude…
Projected changes in summer precipitation deficits partly depend on alterations in synoptic circulations. Here, the automated Jenkinson-Collison (JC) classification is used to assess the ability of twenty-one Global Climate Models (GCMs) to…
Marine shallow cumulus clouds have long caused large uncertainty in climate projections. These clouds frequently organize into mesoscale (10-500 km) structures, through two processes that couple the clouds to shallow mesoscale circulations:…
In climate science and meteorology, high-resolution local precipitation (rain and snowfall) predictions are limited by the computational costs of simulation-based methods. Statistical downscaling, or super-resolution, is a common workaround…
Climate change affects occurrences of floods and droughts worldwide. However, predicting climate impacts over individual watersheds is difficult, primarily because accurate hydrological forecasts require models that are calibrated to past…
Convective available potential energy (CAPE), a metric associated with severe weather, is expected to increase with warming. Under the most widely-accepted theory, developed for strongly convective regimes, mean CAPE should rise following…
Soil moisture-precipitation coupling (SMPC) plays a critical role in Earth's water and energy cycles but remains difficult to quantify due to synoptic-scale variability and the complex interplay of land-atmosphere processes. Here, we apply…
Precipitation extremes intensify in most regions in climate-model projections. Changes in vertical velocities contribute to the changes in intensity of precipitation extremes but remain poorly understood. Here, we find that mid-tropospheric…
This paper addresses the challenges of an early flood warning caused by complex convective systems (CSs), by using Low-Earth Orbit and Geostationary satellite data. We focus on a sequence of extreme events that took place in central Vietnam…
Climate change increases the frequency of extreme rainfall, placing a significant strain on urban infrastructures, especially Combined Sewer Systems (CSS). Overflows from overburdened CSS release untreated wastewater into surface waters,…
Storm-scale convection-allowing models (CAMs) are an important tool for predicting the evolution of thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems that result in damaging extreme weather. By explicitly resolving convective dynamics within…
Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit…
The gridding of daily accumulated precipitation -- especially extremes -- from ground-based station observations is problematic due to the fractal nature of precipitation, and therefore estimates of long period return values and their…