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Related papers: Dynamic Structural Causal Models

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In multivariate time series analysis, understanding the underlying causal relationships among variables is often of interest for various applications. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) provide a powerful framework for representing causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Arkaprava Roy , Anindya Roy , Subhashis Ghosal

Synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models (SCMs) are commonly used for benchmarking causal structure learning algorithms. However, the variances and pairwise correlations in SCM data tend to increase along the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Weronika Ormaniec , Scott Sussex , Lars Lorch , Bernhard Schölkopf , Andreas Krause

We consider the problem of answering observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries in a causally sufficient setting where only observational data and the causal graph are available. Utilizing the recent developments in diffusion…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-11 Patrick Chao , Patrick Blöbaum , Sapan Patel , Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying causal relationships from observational data, is highly challenging for AI systems. In a time series modeling context, traditional causal discovery methods mainly consider constrained scenarios…

Complex dynamical systems are prevalent in many scientific disciplines. In the analysis of such systems two aspects are of particular interest: 1) the temporal patterns along which they evolve and 2) the underlying causal mechanisms.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-31 Nicolas-Domenic Reiter , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

Causal discovery aims to extract qualitative causal knowledge in the form of causal graphs from data. Because causal ground truth is rarely known in the real world, simulated data plays a vital role in evaluating the performance of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Rebecca J. Herman , Jonas Wahl , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

Bivariate structural causal models (SCM) are often used to infer causal direction by examining their goodness-of-fit under restricted model classes. In this paper, we describe a parametrization of bivariate SCMs in terms of a causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-11 Johnny Xi , Hugh Dance , Peter Orbanz , Benjamin Bloem-Reddy

In unsupervised causal representation learning for sequential data with time-delayed latent causal influences, strong identifiability results for the disentanglement of causally-related latent variables have been established in stationary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-02 Xiangchen Song , Weiran Yao , Yewen Fan , Xinshuai Dong , Guangyi Chen , Juan Carlos Niebles , Eric Xing , Kun Zhang

Inspired by the ubiquitous use of differential equations to model continuous dynamics across diverse scientific and engineering domains, we propose a novel and intuitive approach to continuous sequence modeling. Our method interprets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Macheng Shen , Chen Cheng

We formulate a general framework for building structural causal models (SCMs) with deep learning components. The proposed approach employs normalising flows and variational inference to enable tractable inference of exogenous noise…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-26 Nick Pawlowski , Daniel C. Castro , Ben Glocker

Causal inference in spatio-temporal settings is critically hindered by unmeasured confounders with complex spatio-temporal dynamics and the prevalence of multi-resolution data. While diffusion models present a promising avenue for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Xinwen Liu , Lei Qian , Song Xi Chen , Niansheng Tang

Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) with high dimensionality are commonly encountered in computational physics and engineering. However, finding solutions for these PDEs can be computationally expensive, making model-order reduction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-07 Sebastian Kaltenbach , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis , Petros Koumoutsakos

Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining.…

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), as a general-purpose framework, often overlook the benefits of incorporating the causal structure of the transition and reward dynamics. For a subclass of resource allocation problems, we introduce the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Larkin Liu , Shiqi Liu , Yinruo Hua , Matej Jusup

Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-18 Jonas Peters , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

Causal discovery from observational and interventional data is challenging due to limited data and non-identifiability: factors that introduce uncertainty in estimating the underlying structural causal model (SCM). Selecting experiments…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-24 Panagiotis Tigas , Yashas Annadani , Andrew Jesson , Bernhard Schölkopf , Yarin Gal , Stefan Bauer

Discrete choice models (DCMs) have been widely utilized in various scientific fields, especially economics, for many years. These models consider a stochastic environment influencing each decision maker's choices. Extensive research has…

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-13 Amirreza Talebi

Structural causal models (SCMs) were conceived to formulate and answer causal questions. This paper shows that SCMs can also be used to formulate and answer teleological questions, concerning the intentions of a state-aware, goal-directed…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Dario Compagno , Fabio Massimo Zennaro

The Dynamic Chain Event Graph (DCEG) is able to depict many classes of discrete random processes exhibiting asymmetries in their developments and context-specific conditional probabilities structures. However, paradoxically, this very…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-30 Rodrigo A. Collazo , Jim Q. Smith

A Dynamic Chain Event Graph (DCEG) provides a rich tree-based framework for modelling a dynamic process with highly asymmetric developments. An N Time-Slice DCEG (NT-DCEG) is a useful subclass of the DCEG class that exhibits a specific type…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-23 Rodrigo A. Collazo , Jim Q. Smith