Related papers: Dynamic Structural Causal Models
As a representative of public transportation, the fundamental issue of managing bike-sharing systems is bike flow prediction. Recent methods overemphasize the spatio-temporal correlations in the data, ignoring the effects of contextual…
Structural Causal Models (SCMs) offer a principled framework to reason about interventions and support out-of-distribution generalization, which are key goals in scientific discovery. However, the task of learning SCMs from observed data…
Understanding causal relations in dynamic systems is essential in epidemiology. While causal inference methods have been extensively studied, they often rely on fully specified causal graphs, which may not always be available in complex…
A structural causal model is made of endogenous (manifest) and exogenous (latent) variables. We show that endogenous observations induce linear constraints on the probabilities of the exogenous variables. This allows to exactly map a causal…
The dynamic properties and independence structure of stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are analyzed. An SKM is a highly multivariate jump process used to model chemical reaction networks, particularly those in biochemical and cellular…
Structural causal models (SCMs) are widely used in various disciplines to represent causal relationships among variables in complex systems. Unfortunately, the underlying causal structure is often unknown, and estimating it from data…
Identifying causal relations among multi-variate time series is one of the most important elements towards understanding the complex mechanisms underlying the dynamic system. It provides critical tools for forecasting, simulations and…
We introduce structural causal bottleneck models (SCBMs), a novel class of structural causal models. At the core of SCBMs lies the assumption that causal effects between high-dimensional variables only depend on low-dimensional summary…
We develop the theory linking 'E-separation' in directed mixed graphs (DMGs) with conditional independence relations among coordinate processes in stochastic differential equations (SDEs), where causal relationships are determined by "which…
We show how, and under which conditions, the equilibrium states of a first-order Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) system can be described with a deterministic Structural Causal Model (SCM). Our exposition sheds more light on the concept…
We show how, and under which conditions, the equilibrium states of a first-order Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) system can be described with a deterministic Structural Causal Model (SCM). Our exposition sheds more light on the concept…
Multivariate time series in domains such as finance, climate science, and healthcare often exhibit long-term trends, seasonal patterns, and short-term fluctuations, complicating causal inference under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.…
One of the central elements of any causal inference is an object called structural causal model (SCM), which represents a collection of mechanisms and exogenous sources of random variation of the system under investigation (Pearl, 2000). An…
We extend the theory of spectral submanifolds (SSMs) to general non-autonomous dynamical systems that are either weakly forced or slowly varying. Examples of such systems arise in structural dynamics, fluid-structure interactions and…
Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…
In this paper, we present the Difference- Based Causality Learner (DBCL), an algorithm for learning a class of discrete-time dynamic models that represents all causation across time by means of difference equations driving change in a…
Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed…
We address the problem of causal discovery from data, making use of the recently proposed causal modeling framework of modular structural causal models (mSCM) to handle cycles, latent confounders and non-linearities. We introduce…
This paper explores the discrete Dynamic Causal Modeling (DDCM) and its relationship with Directed Information (DI). We prove the conditional equivalence between DDCM and DI in characterizing the causal relationship between two brain…
Causal decomposition depicts a cause-effect relationship that is not based on the concept of prediction, but based on the phase dependence of time series. It has been validated in both stochastic and deterministic systems and is now…