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In this paper, we investigate gradient estimate of the Poisson equation and the exponential convergence in the Wasserstein metric $W_{1,d_{l^1}}$, uniform in the number of particles, and uniform-in-time propagation of chaos for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-15 Wei Liu , Liming Wu , Chaoen Zhang

The empirical measure of an interacting particle system is a purely atomic random probability measure. In the limit as the number of particles grows to infinity, we show for McKean-Vlasov systems with common noise that this measure becomes…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-01 Robert Alexander Crowell

We consider a system of $N$ interacting particles, governed by transport and diffusion, that converges in a mean-field limit to the solution of a McKean-Vlasov equation. From the observation of a trajectory of the system over a fixed time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-16 Laetitia Della Maestra , Marc Hoffmann

We consider the Bayesian nonparametric estimation of a nonlinear reaction function in a reaction-diffusion stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE). The likelihood is well-defined and tractable by the infinite-dimensional Girsanov…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-10 Randolf Altmeyer , Sascha Gaudlitz

We study parameter estimation for interacting particle systems (IPSs) consisting of $N$ weakly interacting multivariate hypoelliptic SDEs. We propose a locally Gaussian approximation of the transition dynamics, carefully designed to address…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-19 Yuga Iguchi , Alexandros Beskos , Grigorios A. Pavliotis

Given a sample from a discretely observed compound Poisson process, we consider non-parametric estimation of the density $f_0$ of its jump sizes, as well as of its intensity $\lambda_0.$ We take a Bayesian approach to the problem and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-27 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

Bayesian field theory denotes a nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning functions from observational data. Based on the principles of Bayesian statistics, a particular Bayesian field theory is defined by combining two models: a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 J. C. Lemm

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Kolyan Ray , Aad van der Vaart

This paper studies the approximation of invariant measures of McKean-Vlasov dynamics with non-degenerate additive noise. While prior findings necessitated a strong monotonicity condition on the McKean-Vlasov process, we expand these results…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-24 Wenjing Cao , Kai Du

Given a sample from a discretely observed multidimensional compound Poisson process, we study the problem of nonparametric estimation of its jump size density $r_0$ and intensity $\lambda_0$. We take a nonparametric Bayesian approach to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-08 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

We study the reknown deconvolution problem of recovering a distribution function from independent replicates (signal) additively contaminated with random errors (noise), whose distribution is known. We investigate whether a Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-15 Judith Rousseau , Catia Scricciolo

This paper studies nonparametric estimation of parameters of multivariate Hawkes processes. We consider the Bayesian setting and derive posterior concentration rates. First rates are derived for L1-metrics for stochastic intensities of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Sophie Donnet , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

We consider the problem of parameter estimation for a stochastic McKean-Vlasov equation, and the associated system of weakly interacting particles. We study two cases: one in which we observe multiple independent trajectories of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Louis Sharrock , Nikolas Kantas , Panos Parpas , Grigorios A. Pavliotis

In numerous applications data are observed at random times and an estimated graph of the spectral density may be relevant for characterizing and explaining phenomena. By using a wavelet analysis, one derives a nonparametric estimator of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-27 Jean-Marc Bardet , Pierre Bertrand

We study a sequential system of interacting diffusions in which particle $i$ interacts only with its predecessors through the empirical measure $\mu_t^{i-1}$, yielding a directed, non-exchangeable mean-field approximation of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Zhenfu Wang , Xianliang Zhao

We consider a discrete-time system of n coupled random vectors, a.k.a. interacting particles. The dynamics involve a vanishing step size, some random centered perturbations, and a mean vector field which induces the coupling between the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-09 Pascal Bianchi , Walid Hachem , Victor Priser

Nonparametric Bayesian models are used routinely as flexible and powerful models of complex data. Many times, a statistician may have additional informative beliefs about data distribution of interest, e.g., its mean or subset components,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-08 Bingjing Tang , Vinayak Rao

We establish a general semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises theorem for Bayesian nonparametric priors based on continuous observations in a periodic reversible multidimensional diffusion model. We consider a wide range of functionals…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-23 Matteo Giordano , Kolyan Ray

This paper investigates the estimation of the interaction function for a class of McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations. The estimation is based on observations of the associated particle system at time $T$, considering the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-01 Chiara Amorino , Denis Belomestny , Vytautė Pilipauskaitė , Mark Podolskij , Shi-Yuan Zhou

Based on a class of moderately interacting particle systems, we establish a quantitative approximation for density-dependent McKean-Vlasov SDEs and the corresponding nonlinear, nonlocal PDEs. The SDE is driven by both Brownian motion and…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-02 Ke Song , Zimo Hao , Mingkun Ye
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