Related papers: Large-sample theory for inferential models: a poss…

Existing frameworks for probabilistic inference assume the quantity of interest is the parameter of a posited statistical model. In machine learning applications, however, often there is no statistical model/parameter; the quantity of…

We establish a general semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises theorem for Bayesian nonparametric priors based on continuous observations in a periodic reversible multidimensional diffusion model. We consider a wide range of functionals…

There has been significant progress in Bayesian inference based on sparsity-inducing (e.g., spike-and-slab and horseshoe-type) priors for high-dimensional regression models. The resulting posteriors, however, in general do not possess…

As Basu (1977) writes, "Eliminating nuisance parameters from a model is universally recognized as a major problem of statistics," but after more than 50 years since Basu wrote these words, the two mainstream schools of thought in statistics…

Variational Bayes (VB) provides a computationally efficient alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo, especially for high-dimensional and large-scale inference. However, existing theory on VB primarily focuses on fixed-dimensional settings…

The development of statistical methods for valid and efficient probabilistic inference without prior distributions has a long history. Fisher's fiducial inference is perhaps the most famous of these attempts. We argue that, despite its…

High-dimensional linear models have been widely studied, but the developments in high-dimensional generalized linear models, or GLMs, have been slower. In this paper, we propose an empirical or data-driven prior leading to an empirical…

The inferential model (IM) framework provides valid prior-free probabilistic inference by focusing on predicting unobserved auxiliary variables. But, efficient IM-based inference can be challenging when the auxiliary variable is of higher…

In a smooth semiparametric model, the marginal posterior distribution of the finite dimensional parameter of interest is expected to be asymptotically equivalent to the sampling distribution of frequentist's efficient estimators. This is…

We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…

In this paper we adopt the familiar sparse, high-dimensional linear regression model and focus on the important but often overlooked task of prediction. In particular, we consider a new empirical Bayes framework that incorporates data in…

Bayesian methods provide a natural means for uncertainty quantification, that is, credible sets can be easily obtained from the posterior distribution. But is this uncertainty quantification valid in the sense that the posterior credible…

Inferential models (IMs) offer provably reliable, data-driven, possibilistic statistical inference. But despite the IM framework's theoretical and foundational advantages, efficient computation is a challenge. This paper presents a simple…

We establish a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for approximately linear semiparametric functionals of fractional posterior distributions based on nonparametric priors. This is illustrated in a number of nonparametric settings and for…

This is a review of asymptotic and non-asymptotic behaviour of Bayesian methods under model specification. In particular we focus on consistency, i.e. convergence of the posterior distribution to the point mass at the best parametric…

Statistical inference on the mean of a Poisson distribution is a fundamentally important problem with modern applications in, e.g., particle physics. The discreteness of the Poisson distribution makes this problem surprisingly challenging,…

In scientific applications, there often are several competing models that could be fit to the observed data, so quantification of the model uncertainty is of fundamental importance. In this paper, we develop an inferential model (IM)…

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

A random set is a generalisation of a random variable, i.e. a set-valued random variable. The random set theory allows a unification of other uncertainty descriptions such as interval variable, mass belief function in Dempster-Shafer theory…