English

Bernstein - von Mises theorem and misspecified models: a review

Statistics Theory 2023-11-21 v1 Statistics Theory

Abstract

This is a review of asymptotic and non-asymptotic behaviour of Bayesian methods under model specification. In particular we focus on consistency, i.e. convergence of the posterior distribution to the point mass at the best parametric approximation to the true model, and conditions for it to be locally Gaussian around this point. For well specified regular models, variance of the Gaussian approximation coincides with the Fisher information, making Bayesian inference asymptotically efficient. In this review, we discuss how this is affected by model misspecification. We also discuss approaches to adjust Bayesian inference to make it asymptotically efficient under model misspecification.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2204.13614,
  title  = {Bernstein - von Mises theorem and misspecified models: a review},
  author = {Natalia Bochkina},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2204.13614},
  year   = {2023}
}