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Simulation-based inference (SBI) is an established approach for performing Bayesian inference on scientific simulators. SBI so far works best on low-dimensional parametric models. However, it is difficult to infer function-valued…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Guy Moss , Leah Sophie Muhle , Reinhard Drews , Jakob H. Macke , Cornelius Schröder

Stochastic infectious disease models capture uncertainty in public health outcomes and have become increasingly popular in epidemiological practice. However, calibrating these models to observed data is challenging with existing methods for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-18 Prayag Chatha , Fan Bu , Jeffrey Regier , Evan Snitkin , Jon Zelner

The BrainScaleS-2 (BSS-2) system implements physical models of neurons as well as synapses and aims for an energy-efficient and fast emulation of biological neurons. When replicating neuroscientific experiments on BSS-2, a major challenge…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Jakob Kaiser , Raphael Stock , Eric Müller , Johannes Schemmel , Sebastian Schmitt

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is emerging as a new statistical paradigm for addressing complex scientific inference problems. By leveraging the representational power of deep neural networks, SBI can extract the most informative…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-10-17 Huifang Lyu , James Alvey , Noemi Anau Montel , Mauro Pieroni , Christoph Weniger

Bayesian inference without the likelihood evaluation, or likelihood-free inference, has been a key research topic in simulation studies for gaining quantitatively validated simulation models on real-world datasets. As the likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-07 Dongjun Kim , Kyungwoo Song , YoonYeong Kim , Yongjin Shin , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon , Weonyoung Joo

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

Neural simulation-based inference (SBI) is a popular set of methods for Bayesian inference when models are only available in the form of a simulator. These methods are widely used in the sciences and engineering, where writing down a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-15 Yuga Hikida , Ayush Bharti , Niall Jeffrey , François-Xavier Briol

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is an approach to statistical inference where simulations from an assumed model are used to construct estimators and confidence sets. SBI is often used when the likelihood is intractable and to construct…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Lorenzo Tomaselli , Valérie Ventura , Larry Wasserman

Neural likelihood estimation methods for simulation-based inference can suffer from performance degradation when the modeled data is very high-dimensional or lies along a lower-dimensional manifold, which is due to the inability of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-12 Simon Dirmeier , Carlo Albert , Fernando Perez-Cruz

For stochastic process models, parameter inference is often severely bottlenecked by computationally expensive likelihood functions. Simulation-based inference (SBI) bypasses this restriction by constructing amortized surrogate likelihoods,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Alexander Shen , Mikael Kuusela

Modern approaches for simulation-based inference rely upon deep learning surrogates to enable approximate inference with computer simulators. In practice, the estimated posteriors' computational faithfulness is, however, rarely guaranteed.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-30 Arnaud Delaunoy , Joeri Hermans , François Rozet , Antoine Wehenkel , Gilles Louppe

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables parameter inference by training neural networks on forward simulations. It is being applied both for intractable likelihoods as well as under time constraints on the posterior sampling. After…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-12 Leander Thiele

Neural posterior estimation methods based on discrete normalizing flows have become established tools for simulation-based inference (SBI), but scaling them to high-dimensional problems can be challenging. Building on recent advances in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-30 Maximilian Dax , Jonas Wildberger , Simon Buchholz , Stephen R. Green , Jakob H. Macke , Bernhard Schölkopf

Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) tempers a loss with a temperature $\beta > 0$ to mitigate overconfidence and improve robustness under model misspecification, but existing GBI methods typically rely on costly MCMC or SDE-based samplers…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-25 Shiyi Sun , Geoff K. Nicholls , Jeong Eun Lee

Posterior inference in directed graphical models is commonly done using a probabilistic encoder (a.k.a inference model) conditioned on the input. Often this inference model is trained jointly with the probabilistic decoder (a.k.a generator…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-21 Amir Zadeh , Smon Hessner , Yao-Chong Lim , Louis-Phlippe Morency

We introduce a new amortized likelihood ratio estimator for likelihood-free simulation-based inference (SBI). Our estimator is simple to train and estimates the likelihood ratio using a single forward pass of the neural estimator. Our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-20 Adam D. Cobb , Brian Matejek , Daniel Elenius , Anirban Roy , Susmit Jha

Comparison of appropriate models to describe observational data is a fundamental task of science. The Bayesian model evidence, or marginal likelihood, is a computationally challenging, yet crucial, quantity to estimate to perform Bayesian…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-11-10 A. Spurio Mancini , M. M. Docherty , M. A. Price , J. D. McEwen

Most of the fundamental, emergent, and phenomenological parameters of particle and nuclear physics are determined through parametric template fits. Simulations are used to populate histograms which are then matched to data. This approach is…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-03-12 Benjamin Sluijter , Sascha Diefenbacher , Wahid Bhimji , Benjamin Nachman

Computer simulations have proven a valuable tool for understanding complex phenomena across the sciences. However, the utility of simulators for modelling and forecasting purposes is often restricted by low data quality, as well as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-14 Daniel Ward , Patrick Cannon , Mark Beaumont , Matteo Fasiolo , Sebastian M Schmon

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-04-06 Malik Hassanaly , Corey R. Randall , Peter J. Weddle , Paul J. Gasper , Conlain Kelly , Tanvir R. Tanim , Kandler Smith