English

Amortized Simulation-Based Inference in Generalized Bayes via Neural Posterior Estimation

Machine Learning 2026-05-25 v2 Machine Learning

Abstract

Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) tempers a loss with a temperature β>0\beta > 0 to mitigate overconfidence and improve robustness under model misspecification, but existing GBI methods typically rely on costly MCMC or SDE-based samplers and must be re-run for each new dataset and each β\beta value. We give the first fully amortized variational approximation for the tempered posterior family by training a single data- and β\beta-conditioned neural posterior estimator that enables sampling in a single forward pass, without simulator calls or inference-time MCMC. We introduce two complementary training routes: one synthesizes off-manifold samples from the tempered joint distribution, and the other reweights a fixed base dataset using self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS). We show that the SNIS-weighted objective provides a consistent forward-KL fit to the tempered posterior with finite weight variance. Across four standard simulation-based inference benchmarks, including the chaotic Lorenz-96 system, our β\beta-amortized estimator achieves competitive posterior approximations, in standard two-sample metrics, matching non-amortized MCMC-based power-posterior samplers over a wide range of temperatures.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2601.22367,
  title  = {Amortized Simulation-Based Inference in Generalized Bayes via Neural Posterior Estimation},
  author = {Shiyi Sun and Geoff K. Nicholls and Jeong Eun Lee},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.22367},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

Accepted at ICML 2026

R2 v1 2026-07-01T09:26:48.613Z