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The empirical Bayes $g$-modeling approach via the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) is widely used for large-scale estimation and inference in the normal means problem, yet theoretical guarantees for uncertainty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-31 Taehyun Kim , Bodhisattva Sen

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to approximate posterior distributions in models with unknown or computationally intractable likelihoods. Both the accuracy and computational efficiency of ABC depend on the choice of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-17 Bai Jiang , Tung-yu Wu , Charles Zheng , Wing H. Wong

In variational inference (VI), an approximation of the posterior distribution is selected from a family of distributions through numerical optimization. With the most common variational objective function, known as the evidence lower bound…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-15 Declan McNamara , Jackson Loper , Jeffrey Regier

Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful learners for simulation-based inference (SBI), enabling fast and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulated and real data. Their score-based formulation offers a flexible way…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Jonas Arruda , Niels Bracher , Ullrich Köthe , Jan Hasenauer , Stefan T. Radev

Probability estimation of tree topologies is one of the fundamental tasks in phylogenetic inference. The recently proposed subsplit Bayesian networks (SBNs) provide a powerful probabilistic graphical model for tree topology probability…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-09-10 Tianyu Xie , Musu Yuan , Minghua Deng , Cheng Zhang

Phylodynamics is used to estimate epidemic dynamics from phylogenetic trees or genomic sequences of pathogens, but the likelihood calculations needed can be challenging for complex models. We present a neural Bayes estimator (NBE) for key…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Alexander E. Zarebski , Thomas Williams , Louis du Plessis

In today's era, Neural Networks (NN) are applied in various scientific fields such as robotics, medicine, engineering, etc. However, the predictions of neural networks themselves contain a degree of uncertainty that must always be taken…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 E. V. Aretos , D. G. Sotiropoulos

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

Making inference with spatial extremal dependence models can be computationally burdensome since they involve intractable and/or censored likelihoods. Building on recent advances in likelihood-free inference with neural Bayes estimators,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-19 Jordan Richards , Matthew Sainsbury-Dale , Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Raphaël Huser

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Peter Green , Simon Maskell

Indirect inference (II) is a methodology for estimating the parameters of an intractable (generative) model on the basis of an alternative parametric (auxiliary) model that is both analytically and computationally easier to deal with. Such…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-14 Christopher C. Drovandi , Anthony N. Pettitt , Anthony Lee

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) are brain-inspired models that enable energy-efficient implementation on neuromorphic hardware. However, the supervised training of SNNs remains a hard problem due to the discontinuity of the spiking neuron…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Mingqing Xiao , Qingyan Meng , Zongpeng Zhang , Yisen Wang , Zhouchen Lin

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) enables statistical inference in simulator-based models whose likelihoods are difficult to calculate but easy to simulate from. ABC constructs a kernel-type approximation to the posterior distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Yuexi Wang , Tetsuya Kaji , Veronika Ročková

Many modern statistical applications involve inference for complex stochastic models, where it is easy to simulate from the models, but impossible to calculate likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method of inference for…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-14 Paul Fearnhead , Dennis Prangle

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) capture some of the efficiency of biological brains for inference and learning via the dynamic, online, event-driven processing of binary time series. Most existing learning algorithms for SNNs are based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-06 Hyeryung Jang , Osvaldo Simeone

Recent work proposed the computation of so-called PI-explanations of Naive Bayes Classifiers (NBCs). PI-explanations are subset-minimal sets of feature-value pairs that are sufficient for the prediction, and have been computed with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Joao Marques-Silva , Thomas Gerspacher , Martin C. Cooper , Alexey Ignatiev , Nina Narodytska

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini

Amortized Bayesian inference trains neural networks to solve stochastic inference problems using model simulations, thereby making it possible to rapidly perform Bayesian inference for any newly observed data. However, current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Manuel Gloeckler , Michael Deistler , Christian Weilbach , Frank Wood , Jakob H. Macke

The development of mechanistic models of physical systems is essential for understanding their behavior and formulating predictions that can be validated experimentally. Calibration of these models, especially for complex systems, requires…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-12-04 Jakob Huhle , Jakob Kaiser , Eric Müller , Johannes Schemmel

We consider a linear regression model with a spatially correlated error term on a lattice. When estimating coefficients in the linear regression model, the generalized least squares estimator (GLSE) is used if the covariance structures are…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-07 Toshihiro Hirano
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