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We propose a new model for nonstationary integer-valued time series which is particularly suitable for data with a strong trend. In contrast to popular Poisson-INGARCH models, but in line with classical GARCH models, we propose to pick the…
When dealing with time series data, causal inference methods often employ structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) processes to model time-evolving random systems. In this work, we rephrase recursive SVAR processes with possible latent…
Modeling the dynamics of non-stationary stochastic systems requires balancing the representational power of deep learning with the mathematical transparency of classical models. While classical Markov transition operators provide explicit,…
The availability of data on economic uncertainty sparked a lot of interest in models that can timely quantify episodes of international spillovers of uncertainty. This challenging task involves trading off estimation accuracy for more…
Interest in the study and analysis of dynamic processes in the social, behavioral, and health sciences has burgeoned in recent years due to the increased availability of intensive longitudinal data. However, how best to model and account…
We introduce graphical time series models for the analysis of dynamic relationships among variables in multivariate time series. The modelling approach is based on the notion of strong Granger causality and can be applied to time series…
Robins (1998) introduced marginal structural models (MSMs), a general class of counterfactual models for the joint effects of time-varying treatment regimes in complex longitudinal studies subject to time-varying confounding. He established…
Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) models form a powerful and general model class for analyzing dynamics among multiple time series. While VARMA models encompass the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models, their popularity in…
Understanding how systems respond to external perturbations is fundamental to statistical physics. For systems far from equilibrium, a general framework for response remains elusive. While progress has been made on the linear response of…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been used to describe the dependence within and across multiple time series. This is a model for stationary time series which can be extended to allow the presence of a deterministic trend in each…
Causal structure discovery in complex dynamical systems is an important challenge for many scientific domains. Although data from (interventional) experiments is usually limited, large amounts of observational time series data sets are…
The paper deals with joint state and parameter estimation for nonlinear continuous-time systems. Based on a guaranteed LPV approximation, the set adaptive observers design problem is solved avoiding the exponential complexity obstruction…
While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection repose upon linear time series assumptions, many interactions in neuroscience and economics applications are nonlinear. We develop an approach to nonlinear Granger causality…
Over the last decade, big data have poured into econometrics, demanding new statistical methods for analysing high-dimensional data and complex non-linear relationships. A common approach for addressing dimensionality issues relies on the…
We consider the problem of performing inference on the number of common stochastic trends when data is generated by a cointegrated CKSVAR (a two-regime, piecewise affine SVAR; Mavroeidis, 2021), using a modified version of the Breitung…
We propose a nonparametric method for detecting nonlinear causal relationship within a set of multidimensional discrete time series, by using sparse additive models (SpAMs). We show that, when the input to the SpAM is a $\beta$-mixing time…
Nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) and reservoir computing (RC) have shown promise in forecasting chaotic dynamical systems, such as the Lorenz-63 model and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. However, their reliance on fixed nonlinear…
Established recurrent neural networks are well-suited to solve a wide variety of prediction tasks involving discrete sequences. However, they do not perform as well in the task of dynamical system identification, when dealing with…
High dimensional Vector Autoregressions (VAR) have received a lot of interest recently due to novel applications in health, engineering, finance and the social sciences. Three issues arise when analyzing VAR's: (a) The high dimensional…
Granger causality is a widely-used criterion for analyzing interactions in large-scale networks. As most physical interactions are inherently nonlinear, we consider the problem of inferring the existence of pairwise Granger causality…