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In this paper, we aim to improve multivariate anomaly detection (AD) by modeling the \textit{time-varying non-linear spatio-temporal correlations} found in multivariate time series data . In multivariate time series data, an anomaly may be…
The problem of broad practical interest in spatiotemporal data analysis, i.e., discovering interpretable dynamic patterns from spatiotemporal data, is studied in this paper. Towards this end, we develop a time-varying reduced-rank vector…
Time series data is prevalent in a wide variety of real-world applications and it calls for trustworthy and explainable models for people to understand and fully trust decisions made by AI solutions. We consider the problem of building…
Identifying network Granger causality in large vector autoregressive (VAR) models enhances explanatory power by capturing complex dependencies among variables. This study proposes a methodology that explores latent community structures to…
Causality graphs are routinely estimated in social sciences, natural sciences, and engineering due to their capacity to efficiently represent the spatiotemporal structure of multivariate data sets in a format amenable for human…
Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal models (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or…
Graph-based techniques emerged as a choice to deal with the dimensionality issues in modeling multivariate time series. However, there is yet no complete understanding of how the underlying structure could be exploited to ease this task.…
A semi-parametric, non-linear regression model in the presence of latent variables is introduced. These latent variables can correspond to unmodeled phenomena or unmeasured agents in a complex networked system. This new formulation allows…
Many modern time series arise on networks, where each component is attached to a node and interactions follow observed edges. Classical time-varying parameter VARs (TVP-VARs) treat all series symmetrically and ignore this structure, while…
Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal model (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or nonlinearity.…
Many econometric analyses involve spatio--temporal data. A considerable amount of literature has addressed spatio--temporal models, with Spatial Dynamic Panel Data (SDPD) being widely investigated and applied. In real data applications,…
In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under…
Granger causal inference is a contentious but widespread method used in fields ranging from economics to neuroscience. The original definition addresses the notion of causality in time series by establishing functional dependence…
The vector autoregression (VAR) has long proven to be an effective method for modeling the joint dynamics of macroeconomic time series as well as forecasting. A major shortcoming of the VAR that has hindered its applicability is its heavy…
This paper studies a class of multivariate threshold autoregressive models, known as censored and kinked structural vector autoregressions (CKSVAR), which are notably able to accommodate series that are subject to occasionally binding…
A Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model is commonly used to model multivariate time series, and there are many penalized methods to handle high dimensionality. However in terms of spatio-temporal data, most methods do not take the spatial and…
Multivariate time series anomaly detection has numerous real-world applications and is being extensively studied. Modeling pairwise correlations between variables is crucial. Existing methods employ learnable graph structures and graph…
In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…
Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…
While artificial neural networks excel in unsupervised learning of non-sparse structure, classical statistical regression techniques offer better interpretability, in particular when sparseness is enforced by $\ell_1$ regularization,…