Related papers: On the Estimation of bivariate Conditional Transit…
A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…
Markov switching models are a popular family of models that introduces time-variation in the parameters in the form of their state- or regime-specific values. Importantly, this time-variation is governed by a discrete-valued latent…
We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multidimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit regression with time-varying parameters and apply it to multilayer temporal networks.…
This paper deals with the time-varying high dimensional covariance matrix estimation. We propose two covariance matrix estimators corresponding with a time-varying approximate factor model and a time-varying approximate characteristic-based…
The idea of forward rates stems from interest rate theory. It has natural connotations to transition rates in multi-state models. The generalization from the forward mortality rate in a survival model to multi-state models is non-trivial…
In prevalent cohort studies where subjects are recruited at a cross-section, the time to an event may be subject to length-biased sampling, with the observed data being either the forward recurrence time, or the backward recurrence time, or…
Extended cure survival models enable to separate covariates that affect the probability of an event (or `long-term' survival) from those only affecting the event timing (or `short-term' survival). We propose to generalize the bounded…
The difference in restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a clinically meaningful measure to quantify treatment effect in randomized controlled trials, especially when the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. Several frequentist…
The estimation of the extremal dependence structure is spoiled by the impact of the bias, which increases with the number of observations used for the estimation. Already known in the univariate setting, the bias correction procedure is…
A time-varying bivariate copula joint model, which models the repeatedly measured longitudinal outcome at each time point and the survival data jointly by both the random effects and time-varying bivariate copulas, is proposed in this…
In this paper we consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for coefficients of martingale regression models (in particular, time series models) after variable selection. Although constructing confidence intervals are common…
Complex data features, such as unmodelled censored event times and variables with time-dependent effects, are common in cancer recurrence studies and pose challenges for Bayesian survival modelling. Current methodologies for predictive…
We investigate parameter estimation in subcritical continuous-time birth-and-death processes with multiple births. We show that the classical maximum likelihood estimators for the model parameters, based on the continuous observation of a…
We assess the impact of a Hausman pretest, applied to panel data, on a confidence interval for the slope, conditional on the observed values of the time-varying covariate. This assessment has the advantages that it (a) relates to the values…
Survival time is the primary endpoint of many randomized controlled trials, and a treatment effect is typically quantified by the hazard ratio under the assumption of proportional hazards. Awareness is increasing that in many settings this…
Accurate modelling of the joint extremal dependence structure within a stationary time series is a challenging problem that is important in many applications.\ Several previous approaches to this problem are only applicable to certain types…
We consider semiparametric moment condition models invariant to transformation groups. The parameter of interest is estimated by minimum empirical divergence approach, introduced by Broniatowski and Keziou (2012). It is shown that the…
The conditional Aalen--Johansen estimator, a general-purpose non-parametric estimator of conditional state occupation probabilities, is introduced. The estimator is applicable for any finite-state jump process and supports conditioning on…
This paper presents a conformal prediction procedure to generate two-sided or one-sided prediction intervals for survival times in the presence of right censoring. Specifically, the method provides two-sided predictive bounds for…
Aiming to generate realistic synthetic times series of the bivariate process of daily mean temperature and precipitations, we introduce a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model. The non-homogeneity lies in periodic transition probabilities…